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Market Sniper targets bearish currency pairs

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Break-out trader Francis Hunt at themarketsniper.com shows how he's been trading two topical currency pairs - EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

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CantosCharts features some of the best technical analysts in the business.

Clive Corcoran, Founder and Publisher, tradewithform.com
Michael Hewson, CMC Markets at CMC Markets
James Hughes, Senior Market Analyst at Alpari
Francis Hunt, Founder and Director, The Market Sniper
Sandy Jadeja, Chief Technical Analyst at City Index
David Jones, Chief Market Strategist at IG Index
Ashraf Laidi, at AshraLaidi.com
David Linton, Chief Executive at Updata.co.uk
Steven Mayne, Director at Mayne Financial
Aamer Nawid, Analyst, Fat Prophets

Hello. You're with Francis Hunt, the Market Sniper. This is Cantos Charts. We're going to be looking at a couple of currency pairs. Clearly EUR/USD has been very, very topical of late. I wanted to point out a couple of technical aspects that may have got you into this trade on the short side of the euro.

You may see the blue line from the peak coming down to where we had congestion and what I refer to as a bear flag. We're seeing slightly upward drift of a ledge with a high and the low area that suddenly ended. We had evening stars and then a takeout.

The grey lines I've put in are potential areas where you may have considered shorting. Each one allowing a further level of confirmation, right to the eventual takeout of the previous low. These would have been excellent short entries for selling the euro against the U.S dollar.

Incidentally, there was obviously the MACD cross that confirmed at a later point, and note how the moving average served as some form of resistance on those evening stars.

Look at Cable. Clearly of interest to many of us. Similarly, we had two bear flags. This was the macro view, so I'm looking at the daily chart since the all-time low. And I'm going to zoom on the more recent activity. You may see I've identified two bear flags in there. The first one I missed. First we had the evening star. It only became an evening star on the takeout of the low. So the red candle that took out the low of the evening star confirmed that we may be looking at some downside.

Subsequent to that, we got range trading, also marginally upward tilted, successively higher lows and successively higher highs. But only just, setting up a flag-type formation. Subsequently to the takeout of that lower ledge, it fell short quite substantially. I missed that opportunity.

Also take note, it was at the moving average area as well, which seemed to set up an additional area of resistance, and it fell away from that, staying well within that trade. Similarly, we had the cross on the MACD. These are largely lagging indicators, so they confirm the fact often after the fact.

This particular second bear flag I did trade, and it was quite interesting, so I'm going to go into some more detail on that one.

A larger area of congestion, but very similar in nature with rising bottoms - incrementally rising bottoms - and incrementally rising tops. But not the traditional U-bowl shape that typically implies recovery.

Let's have a look a little bit tighter. This may be a touch anaemic. It's come out of my platform, but there the two bear flags, I've gone on a four-hourly period, so you can see some more of the detail. Note how largely it's along the bottom of the ledge, with occasional spikes just to set in upsides of the ledge on the second bear flag.

I've highlighted with a bit of red where I eventually chose to go short on the takeout of the ledge. First it fell through, then it's retraced slightly back into range, and then collapsed again through for the second time. And that was the entry for me.

Note also how support turned to resistance on the earlier bear flag. Classic technical analysis at work.

So we drop down to the hourly. I like dropping down through the timeframes. It gives you more detail to the move. So as I was describing, there's the first failure through the lower side of the ledge. So it came straight down from the top side of the ledge, fell through the lower end, and then had a slight reaction back into the range. And at that point, the short was put on.

A little bit closer trade. Bring a bit more colour in. You can see how the retracements back into the range didn't take out the last relative high. I've highlighted that in blue. So there was further bearishness, and the follow-up bar was looking negative, and then it traded through the floor of the range again.

So it was very confirmatory to me. Further you could have shorted again at the bottom of the tweezers. That's the two lows. That's the top grey arrow. And the second arrow confirms the low, the previous low prior to the bull flag being formed. All of those serving as confirmation to the short.

So 275 points move for you for the taking, trading a bear flag.

I hope that's been useful to you in terms of your trading and how to trade a bear flag, and currencies as whole. I look forward to speaking to you again. That's Francis Hunt, the Market Sniper.

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