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Dollar/pound will 'shoot lower' if critical level breached

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US dollar and the pound, they're currency’s 'ugly sisters'. But which one is uglier? James Hughes at Alpari suggests the key to Cable's direction lies in the 200-day moving average.

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CantosCharts features some of the best technical analysts in the business.

Clive Corcoran, Founder and Publisher, tradewithform.com
Michael Hewson, CMC Markets at CMC Markets
James Hughes, Senior Market Analyst at Alpari
Francis Hunt, Founder and Director, The Market Sniper
Sandy Jadeja, Chief Technical Analyst at City Index
David Jones, Chief Market Strategist at IG Index
Ashraf Laidi, at AshraLaidi.com
David Linton, Chief Executive at Updata.co.uk
Steven Mayne, Director at Mayne Financial
Aamer Nawid, Analyst, Fat Prophets

Hello and welcome to CantosCharts. My name is James Hughes from online currency trading firm Alpari UK.

Today we're going to look at some currencies. We're going to look at USD/CHF.

Now, of course, USD/CHF has been in the news as one of those safe haven currency pairs during this time of absolute volatility and uncertainty that we're seeing throughout global financial markets.

But there are a few of those asset classes that people look to when the likes of equity markets and commodities become so volatile. One of those of course is those precious metals. We always hear about gold on a daily basis hitting those fresh highs.

Now USD/CHF is almost that same sort of story but from a currency point of view. Pretty much every day, as you can see from this chart, now this has been running since April, May 2010 this trend and pretty much on a daily basis up until recently we've been seeing the CHF hit fresh highs, so this currency pair hitting fresh lows on a daily basis.

Now, because of that safe haven status, because of this trend being in place for such a long time, a lot of money coming out of the equity markets going into currency pairs like this one. However, we have seen some intervention form the Swiss Central Bank to try and stop the overheating of their currency, trying to weaken it that little bit much because it was getting too strong.

Now we have seen that within this little spike here. It has gone in line with the movements from August and the overall volatility we've had due to the uncertainty around the world.

Now, if we zoom in on this a little bit we can see we're now being underpinned by this 77.60 level. That's going to be key as to whether we can see really this USD/CHF remain as that almost safe haven currency pair and whether what the Swiss National Bank are doing by trying to reduce the strength of their own currency will work.

Now this is very much short-term. We have seen this over the last couple of weeks this level at 77.60 holding up and that's going to be key over the next few weeks or so or even the next few days to see if this does remain.

One thing which will determine whether this does remain and whether this level holds up is going to be what happens in terms of Italy, Spain in the eurozone and if this week when we hear the Federal Reserve speaking from Jackson Hole whether they come out with any further quantitative easing levels or moves to ease those problems in the US economy. That's going to be key to see whether this stays as that safe haven currency pair.

Like some others, but this one has been one of those favourites because of the strength of that trend that has been in place.

Thank you for listening. My name is James Hughes from foreign exchange broker Alpari UK.

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