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More soy milk in your coffee?

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After long downward trends Robusta Coffee and soybeans look set for more positive territories. Francis Hunt from themarketsniper.com shows how to apply high probability break outs to soft commodities.

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CantosCharts features some of the best technical analysts in the business.

Clive Corcoran, Founder and Publisher, tradewithform.com
Michael Hewson, CMC Markets at CMC Markets
James Hughes, Senior Market Analyst at Alpari
Francis Hunt, Founder and Director, The Market Sniper
Sandy Jadeja, Chief Technical Analyst at City Index
David Jones, Chief Market Strategist at IG Index
Ashraf Laidi, at AshraLaidi.com
David Linton, Chief Executive at Updata.co.uk
Steven Mayne, Director at Mayne Financial
Aamer Nawid, Analyst, Fat Prophets

Good day. It's Francis Hunt, the Market Sniper, for CantosCharts taking a look at commodities today.

This is Robusta coffee. I was watching this. They have been in a long downward trend. We started to get a very interesting setup. Something you may indeed recognise, a setup I trade very enthusiastically, looking for high probability breakouts. Initially, given the long downward trend behind it, I wondered if this would be to the downside and I set up my charts accordingly and my orders. However, I was a bit uncertain and I decided to wait to see what happened with the market.

In fact, it broke to the upside and you can see where the long entry came in. I waited for the move to confirm it, but clearly, there was ironing out of the volatility and there was going to be a breakout.

Interestingly enough, in the news we found out a large amount of hedge funds had been caught very short and there was a massive short covering rally. Trading the Hunt volatility funnel you actually would have been squeezing the hedge funds.

Here's that final area where the volatility was ironing out. Initially, we may have looked at an entry at the 3A level, waiting for the ultimate low of that pairing at the 3A level there in red. But then as it has inched forward slightly and set a slightly higher high and a slightly tighter low, note how we were able to move the target even further because it gave us a slightly higher access.

So these are dynamic patterns that you continually must revise on the price action because that affects both the axis and your eventual target and also this allows you to trade bigger.

I've dropped down on the timeframes to show you how you could have in-traded this.

There was the initial entry. This is money management. See how the stock can be trailed to key levels that are being identified. We're now on a 10 minute chart instead of the daily. So there was the initial 12 units. Once I got another mini setup, that was also a Hunt volatility funnel, classic continuation pattern behaviour and it has signalled that it was going to move up further, I added slightly in a pyramiding sense to the position and trailed all the stops to the base of that pattern. There's the primary target at the top.

This is dropping even further into - we are looking at a five minute chart here just to get more detail. This shows how the stops can be trailed.

A lot of people give too much profit back. You've got to be aggressive defending your profits and trailing stops all the way to the target was the way that this trade transpired.

There you go, the target is met. Final blow off trade. 111 pips taken there in virtually one full day from the afternoon and covered morning the next time.

So a successful way to utilise breakout trading with aggressive money management and stock trailing.

The last time I was here we took a look at the soya beans complex on a weekly chart.

There we have it. There was a potential possibility that it was going to move. It's clearly ironing out and a lot of wild oscillations were coming out of the market and we were expecting volatility eventually to return as it does. I was biasing to the bull side, but the possibility existed that we could have had a fall away in this complex.

This is soya beans meal, one of the soya beans complex, and you can see we have actually moved to the upside. So it does look like an upside move. There is a very substantial target being projected because of the pullback in the larger pattern on a weekly basis. So even though it has broken these levels there is plenty more potentially to come on this chart at the weekly level.

Just going into some of that detail a little further on the daily, you can see where you would have been pop long and you can see where your money management stop should be for soya beans.

So that's how we trade commodities using high probability breakout setups. This was Francis Hunt. You can follow me on Twitter under the Market Sniper for CantosCharts. Have a good day.

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