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FTSE 100 outlook: "Bulls beware"

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Plotting key levels for monthly, weekly and daily trades, Steven Mayne at Mayne Financial shows how the bears could be “in control of the market” and why this Friday is important for short-term traders.

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CantosCharts features some of the best technical analysts in the business.

Clive Corcoran, Founder and Publisher, tradewithform.com
Michael Hewson, CMC Markets at CMC Markets
James Hughes, Senior Market Analyst at Alpari
Francis Hunt, Founder and Director, The Market Sniper
Sandy Jadeja, Chief Technical Analyst at City Index
David Jones, Chief Market Strategist at IG Index
Ashraf Laidi, at AshraLaidi.com
David Linton, Chief Executive at Updata.co.uk
Steven Mayne, Director at Mayne Financial
Aamer Nawid, Analyst, Fat Prophets

Hello there. Welcome to CantosCharts. I'm Steve Mayne from Mayne Financial.

In this session we're going to be going over the FTSE 100 on the monthly, weekly and daily timeframe. So to start we'll have a look at the FTSE on a monthly timeframe.

What you can see is we've had quite a strong run here since the start of 2009. As we've moved up we've broken above the 200 simple moving average we can clearly see here in black and actually over the past three months we've now started moving below it. We've actually changed trend. We're in quite a strong uptrend here, but over the past two months we've actually broken. We've formed a lower low. So this could be the start of a bear trend forming.

On the positive side, what we can see from the indicators is we can see the stochastic is now coming down tending towards oversold. Normally when we get to these points, as we've seen in the past, eventually we do start seeing up moves. But people should really be wary of this. If we get up and we form a lower high, really, the bears will be in control of the market on this monthly timeframe and that's probably quite bad for share traders.

Just have a little quick run through. As we can see on the monthly timeframe, the FTSE 100 is now in a neutral trend. Bulls beware; a break below August low. You can clearly see the price on your screen. If we go below there, then the bears will be in control of the market, so really, a bit of a concern for the monthly time traders.

Zooming in, something probably a bit more relevant, the weekly timeframe here. What we can see is we've also got a neutral price action forming here. But last week did actually recover the majority of the losses on Friday. We have a very strong run on Friday. So for the week we closed relatively flat, so we have actually got an opportunity of possibly forming a buy pattern this week during FTSE 100 trading. Obviously this week, Friday is the big non-farm figures in America, so do keep this in mind. Probably only modest positions during this week before such big economic data on Friday.

What we can see from the momentum indicators is a clear sell signal there on the stochastic. That's clearly negative.

We haven't really got any true direction on the RSI. We do have a sell signal here on the MACD, so what we're looking at is a neutral price action on the weekly timeframe, a sell on the stochastic, a sell on the MACD, but the whole week really relies on Friday in America, Friday's non-farm payroll figures very important here.

So what we can see here is that we do have a chance after Friday's big recovery of getting a positive pattern forming on the weekly timeframe. We've got the exact numbers here. These are really what you should be looking for on your screens, on your trading screens, on your spread betting screens and those types of things in front of you. Look for these clear numbers hoping that we do get a buy signal really on the market here. But please bear in mind that we're in a neutral price action trend on the weekly timeframe, so really it's a bit undecided on this timeframe where the market should be heading. Friday's big figures are important.

Now far more relative for you short-term traders is the daily timeframe on the FTSE. What we can see here is that we're in a negative price action trend. We really have been since we reached that high just after the start of August. What we should be looking for here is further confirmation of this possible buy signal being formed. We've got a buy signal on the stochastic. We've got really probably a negative trend here on the RSI and the MACD is currently looking negative. But in general, we've actually got quite a positive run on this indicator, so what we should be looking for is that if we don't form a higher high, it would just be a break above this cluster of moving averages we can see. If the market does come down and we don't break this low, we start moving up.

For the people trading the big picture, it's the rally up which is important here. If we rally up, we don't break above 5,400, we don't break the August high and we turn, we start heading down, really, that's going to be a very, very big sell signal on the FTSE 100 and something really to be looking for.

So just really a quick summary, on the dailies we're in a negative price trend. We're really waiting to see what happens over the coming days. Obviously Friday will be a big day, but for your exact figures, we've got them on the weekly timeframes as well. Just looking to see what happens over the next few days. Probably expect some light volume until Friday's big, big non-farm payroll figures. We can start moving forward from there.

Thank you very much for watching CantosCharts. I've been Steven from Mayne Financial.

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