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Miner's outlook 'extremely secure'

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Despite continuing problems with its Congo operations, long-term earnings for mining group ENRC remain positive with its share price looking to return to highs posted earlier in the year. Aamer Nawid at Fat Prophets explains why.

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Aamer Nawid, Analyst, Fat Prophets

Hello, welcome to Company Focus. My name is Aamer Nawid, analyst at Fat Profits. Today I'm going to be looking at Eurasia Natural Resources, or ENRC, a diversified mining company who I focused in on late September time, looking at their issues in the Congo at the time.

Since then the shares have been on a very volatile ride. As you can see from the chart here, they've dipped to around about £8.70 before pushing on by 16% to over £10.10. Since reaching that level Europe's come along, China fears over tightening and the slowdown has put the brakes on the share price for now at least.

In terms of the Congo the situation, the controversy there continues. As a quick recap, it's all about First Quantum, a Canadian miner, whose assets were ceased by the DRC - the Democratic Republic of Congo Government. They paid $750m for these assets so they're understandably very annoyed about the actual seizure. The assets were sold to ENRC after ENRC bid 175m for five Congo projects. Now the fear for ENRC shareholders is, does First Quantum come after ENRC? But they first need to provide that the DRC acted unlawfully, and that's easier said than done.

First Quantum did state that they felt that international courts hadn't really protected them enough while the dispute was going on. At the moment their anger is vented towards the international courts rather than ENRC.

On the expansion front ENRC has been active and management are determined to get the share price up to the levels from earlier this year - a lot higher than obviously where we are at present.

Now, expansion for any company geographically is great. ENRC have been long trying to get out of Kazakhstan - or not get out of it but reduce their exposure to Kazakhstan in order to bring down the risk profile. The DRC move has proved anything but non-risky. But in October the group undertook two investments in Brazil totalling over $300m, which I think will provide a safer bet.

Production-wise everything is looking really good. The group produced their third-quarter report recently, which produced mixed results, but overall positive. Iron ore and ferroalloys are the key drivers here for ENRC - together they account for around about 83 per cent of operating margins. They're obviously key components of steel. And whilst iron production fell by 10 per cent, ferroalloys increased by around 14 per cent, so a positive there.

The outlook for 2010 looks very positive. Throughout the first nine months of this year ferroalloys' production has been robust, really strong, iron production has been solid and aluminium stable. On a price front, when you look at the price of these underlying commodities, ferroalloys increased by 40 per cent, iron ore has increased significantly, as has aluminium. I've just put up the aluminium chart here to give you an idea of the strength of aluminium prices since the middle of this year, but throughout the whole year the price is up.

Cost-wise there is the issue of the minerals extraction tax in Kazakhstan which is going to add to the cost of production. But I think the company's going to be able to ramp up output, it's going to be able to actually diversify, continuous diversification in other areas away from the minerals extraction tax. And these factors will offset the increased costs. Higher commodities prices will also play a significant role in actually offsetting the increased costs.

I suppose expansion is the name of the game for ENRC, both geographically and in terms of commodities. If you look at the group's balance sheet, they've got $800m on there, so they're not going to be caught short when it comes to funding expansion plans. They have $1.3bn worth of capex outlined and I think, on the back of that, long-term earnings look extremely secure. And I also can see the share price returning to the highs of earlier this year sooner rather than later.

Thanks for watching. Make sure you tune in again next week.

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