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Stocks to watch in 2011

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In his last programme of the year, Aamer Nawid looks at five stocks he thinks are worth keeping an eye on through 2011.

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Clive Corcoran, Founder and Publisher, tradewithform.com
Michael Hewson, CMC Markets at CMC Markets
James Hughes, Senior Market Analyst at Alpari
Francis Hunt, Founder and Director, The Market Sniper
Sandy Jadeja, Chief Technical Analyst at City Index
David Jones, Chief Market Strategist at IG Index
Ashraf Laidi, at AshraLaidi.com
David Linton, Chief Executive at Updata.co.uk
Steven Mayne, Director at Mayne Financial
Aamer Nawid, Analyst, Fat Prophets

Hello. Welcome to Company Focus. My name is Aamer Nawid, Analyst at Fat Prophets.

With 2010 coming to an end what I thought I would do this week is basically run you through five stocks which I think will do very well next year.

First out the traps, Solomon Gold. I don't think there is going to be anything really to get in the way of gold posting its 11th successive year of gains in 2011. I think the likes of African Barrick, Randgold Resources, Petropavlovsk, the big producers, will overcome operational problems which has held back the share prices this year. They will do well, but I think Solomon Gold, a relatively junior company, will shift through the gears in a bit of a profound fashion.

Solomon, as you can see from the chart here, will be remembered by investors for that Thursday in late September where shares started the day around about 20p and shot up to 85p. Maybe 85p will be a bit too much for 2011, but there is loads of news flow coming out of the company over the next six months in order to provide the share price there with some real, real solid impetus.

The main focus for Solomon is the Fauro Island gold and copper deposit which is in the Solomon Islands where a 9,900 metre drilling programme is about to kick off.

In addition to this, the Guadalcanal project has the potential to become a major company defining operation. And in Australia, Solomon has just announced it has made a resource at the Crunchie prospect of 200,000 ounces in Queensland.

So what I think is going to happen next year, resources are going to be ramped up and I think the share price will also head in a positive direction.

As you can see from this chart here, gold has actually been put in the shade by silver this year and I think this momentum will continue next year. One beneficiary is going to be Arian Silver.

Again, relatively junior, similar sort of I suppose maturity as Solomon Gold. Arian has got the distinct advantage of being one of only three listed silver producers in the UK. The company has just started producing from its San Jose mine in Mexico, which is obviously a positive development and basically, management are quite sort of dead set on investing cash flows into sort of further exploration in order to build up the resource and build up future production.

The key benefit of Arian is operating margins are high. So if a bit of steam does come out of the silver price, which the earlier chart showed has done really, really well this year, there is a big buffer there for Arian to sort of help absorb the impact. So Arian is definitely one to watch.

BP is another one to keep your eye on. This week the US government announced they're going after BP and this just kind of rounds off the year for BP. They'll be glad to see the back of it. The Gulf of Mexico, the Deepwater Horizon affect is going to kick around and hang around for a while, yet the company is disposing of assets, it's still contributing to the Gulf of Mexico Trust, the Oil Spill Trust down there and they're basically restructuring the company.

Recent numbers coming out of BP suggest the company is doing very well. Underlying profit, which is a good indication of how well the company is doing, in the third quarter rose by 18 per cent to 5.5bn. Operating cash flow was also up by 4 per cent to over 8bn. So yes, I think obviously a massive benefit. They've been aided by the oil price which you can see here has sort of ticked up from sort of May onwards.

I think investors in BP will benefit from the ongoing strength in the price of oil. Also, new projects in China, Azerbaijan in the North Sea. Asset disposals are being made at fairly decent rates and also I think the return of the dividend which will basically return I think in the next few quarters. So all decent factors for a share which is still in rehabilitation.

Slightly off the normal path that I focus on, just going to look at an ETF at the moment. Vietnam is an economy which I think is going to do very well next year. It has been the odd one out in Southeast Asia. Its currency, the dong, has devalued against the dollar. They've had high inflation and they've also had little reform, little progress on reforms over there. They've got the Communist Party Assembly coming up in January. There has been a lot of unease, uncertainty in the run up to that. In addition, the stock market has been really weak. Currently trading on around about 10-times price earnings multiple.

I think Vietnam will be one of the stories next year and I think it will be the latest economy down in Asia to feel the China affect. I think rising wages in China, an appreciating currency and other cost factors are going to basically see more production shifts across to Vietnam.

I think Vietnam's young, expanding and sort of literate population as well as its appeal as a manufacturing base is going to underpin growth economically and underpin the stock market. An ETF such as the FTSE Vietnam DBX tracker, instruments like that are going to be key beneficiaries.

Last but not least BSkyB is one I think also worth keeping your eye on. At the moment, the situation is at a bit of a standstill. News Corp's £7 per share offer was rejected. Both parties have said look, before we go on and negotiate and arrive at a price, let's overcome some regulatory hurdles first. So Ofcom and the European Commission's investigations are basically due to arrive at a conclusion at the end of this year.

If approval is granted, I think News Corp's offer will have to be slightly higher than £7, maybe £8, maybe more especially given BSkyB's recent progress. The company has just pushed through the 10m subscriber mark which is something they have long held as a target and they've done it with a couple of months to spare.

Financially, the third calendar quarter or first quarter results which were basically released fairly recently show revenue up by 15 per cent, earnings per share up by a third, free cash flow went from £65m to £156m, so all very, very positive.

These come on the back of good sort of full year results, so kind of underscore the fact that BSkyB is basically a profits engine after basically a decade worth of investment.

If approval is blocked, I still think the company will do very, very well and I think shares, after an initial sort of period of weakness, will bounce back relatively quickly.

So those are five companies which I sort of think you should keep a very, very strong eye on over the course of 2011. I just want to say thanks for watching over the course of the whole year. I wish you a very Merry Christmas and a happy New Year and look forward to finding lots of market commentary in 2011.

Thanks for watching. Make sure you tune in again next year.

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