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Keeping track of oil's moves

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With all the current turmoil in the Middle East, how should we be trading crude oil? Sandy Jadeja shows how a few basic methods can help simplify some major moves.

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CantosCharts features some of the best technical analysts in the business.

Clive Corcoran, Founder and Publisher, tradewithform.com
Michael Hewson, CMC Markets at CMC Markets
James Hughes, Senior Market Analyst at Alpari
Francis Hunt, Founder and Director, The Market Sniper
Sandy Jadeja, Chief Technical Analyst at City Index
David Jones, Chief Market Strategist at IG Index
Ashraf Laidi, at AshraLaidi.com
David Linton, Chief Executive at Updata.co.uk
Steven Mayne, Director at Mayne Financial
Aamer Nawid, Analyst, Fat Prophets

Hello and welcome to Cantos Charts Masterclass. I'm Sandy Jadeja, Chief Technical Analyst for City Index. Welcome back to another lesson and market review using technical analysis. As always, this is simply for information and education purposes only.

At all times, we've got to maintain simplicity. There are times when we feel that the market's really running away, but we need to come back down and look at all the basics, because that's where I feel that we could really benefit and use [slides] from. So we're going to focus on the simplicity as always.

Now, here's a chart. This is a chart of crude oil, and it's a weekly chart. So we notice that there was a steep decline followed by this long turn sideways movement. And of course, oil has been in the news recently. Why? What's actually happened? Well, it's popped. It's popped towards the upside. But were there any clues that we should have really been trading on the long side, and that's what I want to focus on for this particular session.

So what I've done over here is I've added something that we've looked at in the past, and this is the moving average channel. So the blue ones are actually the moving averages of the highs and the red ones are the moving average of the lows. And the idea is that when the market has closed above the top side, we want to initiate long positions, and until it closes below the down side, we would remain long.

So what we notice with crude oil is quite a few months back, actually, it started to close on the upper side, and that was telling us that this market should be poised for a bullish move. And of course, what we have seen since then is a fairly sideways move, but the recent move after the turmoil in the Middle East has seen crude oil prices go higher.

And our outside targets are actually based on seven arch levels, so $109 and $124 is where I'm actually looking for crude oil prices to go. But if you haven't used the moving average channels, is there anything else that you could have looked at? Absolutely.

Here, we have, again, the weekly chart. And I've zoomed in on this one, but you'll notice that the 94.89 - we have discussed this previously - we had a bearish harami pattern, and then the market declined. But at the low of 87.09, we notice that there is a spinning top and also you could classify that as a bullish harami as well, because the body is contained within the previous price bar.

And in the breakout of that high, crude oil has jumped right towards the upside, giving us a fantastic move. And of course, there's nothing on this weekly chart which is suggesting that there is going to be any bearish moves just yet, so we're going to have to wait and see if there are any other patterns developing there.

Now, of course, if we look at the longer-term charts and then come down to the daily charts, here we have the parabolic indicator, which has been broken. So that was another indicator that you could have looked at to see where to get in and right now, just close towards the 91, $90 level, is where we do not want to see crude oil prices go, if, of course, you want to remain bullish.

So, always use the large-degree timeframes to give you the trend, and then come down to the lower timeframes for entry and exits. And then use candlesticks patterns to aid you with the reversals. And of course, as always, keep it simple. And I think the crude oil move has given us a fantastic move, and if you'd have kept it simple, you should have been able to capture this.

Well, I hope this has been useful for you. I'll look forward to seeing you in the next lesson. Have a great trading week. This is Sandy Jadeja.

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