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Nuclear shares to gain despite Japan crisis

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In the wake of the tragedies in Japan, Aamer Nawid at Fat Prophets looks at why the sell-off across the Nuclear sector is overdone – and he gives his reasons why the uranium/nuclear sector won’t lose traction in the long run.

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Aamer Nawid, Analyst, Fat Prophets

Hello and welcome to Company Focus. My name is Aamer Nawid, Analyst at Fat Prophets. Today I'm going to be taking a look at a couple of stocks which have been heavily affected by the tragic events currently unfolding in Japan. Uranium miner Berkeley Resources is one. ETFX Global Nuclear Energy is the other. It's an ETF. Its ticker is NUKP. I'll refer to it as NUKP during the presentation.

What I'm going to do is have a look at their particular share price performance and sort of try and take a view on whether they are good to, or the share price falls have been overdone.

First things first, it's important to say that my thoughts and everyone at Fat Prophets thoughts are with all those connected to Japan and all those in Japan. It is a tragedy and it kind of highlights the dangers of the nuclear industry.

The FTSE 100 has reacted, as you can see, last Friday when the news was announced. We've seen quite a profound sort of pullback there. Berkeley in red, NUKP in blue, they've fallen even more as you would expect. There is a huge selloff across anything to do with nuclear power.

Now, when you're trying to work out if this is overdone you've got to look at peoples' attitudes towards the nuclear industry and whether that's going to change or not. Obviously Fukushima is very, very liquid at the moment. News is coming out all the time. It's a bit too early to say what the legacy of the whole incident is going to be.

I think what is a given is an increase in safety standards, stress tests on nuclear power plants across the world. Whether or not this basically alters the globe's long-term quest for greater dependency on the nuclear industry is very unclear. I don't think it will. I think policymakers have basically been long aware of the dangers that the nuclear industry poses and if you look at the factors as to why nuclear energy has gained traction, I don't think they're going to change. I mean, the cost of fossil fuels is very, very high, global energy demand is soaring also, the emphasis to go green seems to be gaining momentum every time there is a climate change summit. And renewables are still unreliable. The likes of wind, solar and hydroelectric are not as reliable as nuclear power. So are these going to change? I don't think so and as such I think the push for nuclear energy will go on.

You can see here this is the price of uranium and that's kind of ticked up since the beginning of last year as more and more capacity to produce nuclear power has come online. You look at the move here, we're only at 15 per cent of the world's electricity is supplied by the nuclear industry, so there is plenty of scope for that to increase and I can see the uranium price pushing forward.

So overall, I think Berkeley and NUKP are in line for further share price gains over coming quarters and years.

Focusing on them individually, here's Berkeley. You can see it has had a huge selloff. Berkeley is a Spanish-focused uranium miner. It has currently just come out of corporate talks with OAO Severstal about a possible AUD2 per share offer. That didn't materialise to much, but you can't rule out other offers coming in. They've just completed a capital raising part of the proceeds of which will go towards a feasibility study at the Salamanca uranium deposit. I think even if there are other takeover offers, as a standalone entity Berkeley will continue to do well and will benefit from sort of high uranium prices in the future.

NUKP is an ETF so it comprises of a variety of different companies. Here's the top 10 holdings. You can see there Areva, which basically makes nuclear plants, is the biggest holding at 8.2 per cent, it's a French company. The ETF consists of everything from power plant builders to uranium miners. Toshiba is the second largest holding there at 5.2 per cent. We know Toshiba for other things, but they took over Westinghouse Power Electric recently and have increased their footprint in the area.

I think overall, countries which have got massive nuclear power development programmes such as the US and China, they're going to have to conduct plant design reviews, no question, as a result of what has happened in Japan. Whether or not this is enough to actually move them away from nuclear energy, I don't think it will and as such, the selloff we've seen in the uranium sector does provide opportunity. The likes of Berkeley and NUKP will push on and see share price gains.

Thanks for watching. Make sure you tune in again next time.

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