For technical analysis of stock market trends plus FX and commodities trading, watch CantosCharts every weekday.

 

 

 

 

 

Oil at a turning point?

You need Adobe Flash player to view this content.
You can download it the flash player here

Sandy Jadeja takes a look at crude oil at a crucial moment. The commodity has been rising to the upside but could the appearance of a bearish engulfing pattern indicate a turning point?

By viewing the video or accessing the transcript you are agreeing to accept the Cantos terms and conditions.

CantosCharts features some of the best technical analysts in the business.

Clive Corcoran, Founder and Publisher, tradewithform.com
Michael Hewson, CMC Markets at CMC Markets
James Hughes, Senior Market Analyst at Alpari
Francis Hunt, Founder and Director, The Market Sniper
Sandy Jadeja, Chief Technical Analyst at City Index
David Jones, Chief Market Strategist at IG Index
Ashraf Laidi, at AshraLaidi.com
David Linton, Chief Executive at Updata.co.uk
Steven Mayne, Director at Mayne Financial
Aamer Nawid, Analyst, Fat Prophets

Welcome to CantosCharts Masterclass. In Sandy Jadeja, Chief Technical Analyst for City Index and welcome to another lesson using technical analysis and charting. As always, this is simply for information and educational purposes only.

We'll take a look at market reviews for the next few videos because there is quite a few things happening in the markets right now.

We'll start by taking a look at this chart and as always, I want to put you in a position where you've got to start thinking and having an independent mindset rather than taking views and tips and other bits of information from the market itself. But if we take a look at the charts, generally the charts will give us as much information as we need.

So the first thing that we can see is this market has been in an uptrend. It certainly has had a lot of attraction in the media recently.

Well what is it? It's basically crude oil and, yes, recently crude oil prices have risen to the upside again.

This is a daily chart and the first thing we notice is that when we had the candlesticks it adds some colour to the chart itself and most of the bars have been blue, so that was suggesting straight away that the market had been heading towards the upside.

But also more importantly, we have broken above the recent highs and the most recent high being $108.25. The recent swing low is $97.02, so we have two key pieces of information there. As long as we stay above $97.02 that would suggest that this market should continue to be in an uptrend. And also right now we are close to the 20 period moving average. It is trading a little bit above there. We've got to watch this moving average to see if crude oil stays above otherwise it could start trending below and there could be some other signals that we may need to pay attention to.

More importantly is the weekly trend and the weekly trend, something else is happening on this particular market. I'm not sure if you can spot it straight away, but if you've been keeping an eye on our previous lessons this should be quite easy. The last bar is a bearish engulfing and that's suggesting that right now crude oil may be at a turning point.

Now previously I did mention that we should be looking at the $115 mark and that's pretty much where we are right now. $113.46 is the recent high. But with the bearish engulfing pattern, that might suggest that crude oil might now be reaching a price exhaustion for the short-term and heading back lower.

So what are we waiting for? Well we want to see a break of the low on the bearish engulfing bar and that's coming in just below $105. So if crude oil takes a drop below this low in the next week or two then the $113.46 would be the intermediate term high. And of course, the bears are going to try and take it below $97.02, so we might find ourselves in a trading range between $97 to $105 and obviously we're just going to have to wait and see for that.

Are there any other bits of information that we could use?

Well the moving average is suggesting that there could be support coming in around the $98 to $99 mark and that's above the $97 mark and, of course, the moving average will move over the next few weeks. It will move hopefully towards the upside maintaining its bullish stance.

And notice how this market has traded quite nicely above the 20 week moving average and we would have looked for signals on the daily charts to enter this market.

So right now, as it stands, we have a bearish engulfing pattern. We would wait for a break of that low if this market is going to turn short-term bearish to intermediate term bearish. We want to see crude oil stay above $97 and the moving average is coming in at the $98 to $99 area there. So there is quite a bit of information that we could use.

Now short-term basis, on a daily chart, if we start breaking down, then that will initiate short positions heading back towards that 20 period moving average.

And of course, the parabolic indicator, which is one of our favourites, once it broke above the $95.08, crude oil had maintained a rally towards the upside and right now, the parabolic break stop is at $98.52.

So you can see how the parabolic and moving average are all pointing towards the $98 area. So very, very useful information.

Well, always use a larger degree timeframe to give us the trend and use the short-term timeframe for entries and exits and candlesticks can help with reversal patterns which we've just seen right now on crude oil on the weekly chart and of course, keep it simple. Don't clutter your charts with too many indicators or too many different chart patterns.

I hope this has been useful for you. I look forward to seeing you in the next lesson for CantosCharts Masterclass. This is Sandy Jadeja. Have a great trading week.

Also on Cantos

Bookmark & share:

Sign up to Our Newsletters