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When to buy gold

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Gold has reached an all-time high, but it would be a mistake to try and pick the top. David Jones at IG Index looks at some upside and downside targets and where the buying opportunities might lie within these key levels. (Recorded Monday, 18 April 2011).

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Clive Corcoran, Founder and Publisher, tradewithform.com
Michael Hewson, CMC Markets at CMC Markets
James Hughes, Senior Market Analyst at Alpari
Francis Hunt, Founder and Director, The Market Sniper
Sandy Jadeja, Chief Technical Analyst at City Index
David Jones, Chief Market Strategist at IG Index
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David Linton, Chief Executive at Updata.co.uk
Steven Mayne, Director at Mayne Financial
Aamer Nawid, Analyst, Fat Prophets

Hello and welcome back to CantosCharts. I'm David Jones from spread betting company IG Index and I thought today we'd have a look at a market with a fairly clear cut trend. Arguably one of the most clearest trending markets at the moment and for some time and this is of course the price of gold.

At the start of this week once again we're seeing gold nudge its way out to all-time record highs and this has been a pattern that we've seen over recent months and now for quite a few years.

There is always the temptation, I think, when a market is as strong as this, as gold or silver, similar markets, for people to try and pick the top. But it's normally an incredibly expensive approach to trading these strong trending markets.

Really, we should be looking at buying opportunities. So from a long-term perspective I've got the price of gold here going back to early 2008 and we can see the leg of the uptrend that we're in now started towards the end of 2008. We had a little test beginning of this year of that uptrend line around about $1,300 an ounce. Since then it has bounced off that and pushed up through $1,480 an ounce. So clearly, the long-term trend for gold is still up.

Now uptrends do not go on forever. At some point they're going to end, but we have no way of knowing is it going to end tomorrow or is it going to end in five years' time.

So the plain and the relatively painless approach for trading a market like that is just to go with the trend. So from a longer term point of view, there has never been a wrong time to buy gold in recent years and at the moment I would stick with that. I think we'll see gold through in the medium-term $1,500 an ounce out to maybe $1,550 and then onwards and upwards and that long-term trend doesn't change unless we see it, for me, break back below the lows of this year around about $1,300 an ounce. So long-term trend for gold still clearly up.

From a shorter term perspective the picture is still pretty much the same. So we're looking here at the price of gold over the last month or so. We've got our trend within a trend here and again we've got a very clear trend over the last month for the price of gold.

So for maybe the shorter term traders out there looking for an opportunity to jump in on any short-term weakness, there's so much support we can pick out. But the most recent support levels over the last couple of weeks have been in the sort of $1,440 to $1,450 an ounce area.

So again, any weakness back to where we are now it would only be a drop of $40, which again for gold is nothing. It could well be a buying opportunity.

So in all timeframes at the moment, and it has been this way for some time, any weakness in gold still looks to be a buying opportunity, looking for a move initially to $1,500 and then I think through there out to $1,550 and with stop losses on the shorter term chart. Probably the first logical place for a stop loss based on this chart here would be below $1,440. Only if it slips below there does it look as if this month trend is running out of steam, but it doesn't change of course the longer 10 year trend. So gold still looks set to move ever higher from here.

That's it for me for today on CantosCharts. You can follow me on Twitter for market updates throughout the day at davidjones_ig on Twitter and please feel free to highlight any topics or markets that you'd like covered in future editions of CantosCharts.

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