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Riding the silver volatility wave

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Last week silver traded up to $50 then reversed to below $35. David Jones shows how we might trade this "incredibly volatile" market and why he thinks the metal will claw back recent losses.

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Clive Corcoran, Founder and Publisher, tradewithform.com
Michael Hewson, CMC Markets at CMC Markets
James Hughes, Senior Market Analyst at Alpari
Francis Hunt, Founder and Director, The Market Sniper
Sandy Jadeja, Chief Technical Analyst at City Index
David Jones, Chief Market Strategist at IG Index
Ashraf Laidi, at AshraLaidi.com
David Linton, Chief Executive at Updata.co.uk
Steven Mayne, Director at Mayne Financial
Aamer Nawid, Analyst, Fat Prophets

Hello, and welcome back to Cantos Charts. I'm David Jones from Spread Betting Company IG Index and today, I thought we'd take a look at the most incredible volatile market in recent months, and that is of course the price of silver.

Last week, we saw silver trade up to nearly $50, and then reverse very sharply as the week went on to trade below $35. So a 30 per cent range on a week for a major commodity in any major market really is a phenomenal level of volatility. So we can see, looking at the - I've got quite a long-term chart here - but looking at the last bit of the chart, we can see the trend for this year from those late January lows was completely destroyed last week, as this market reverses. The futures exchanged racked up margin requirements almost day-by-day as the week went on.

But taking a step back and looking at the longer-term picture, back over the last few years, the trend for silver is still up. That's probably going to be scant consolation if you're still holding silver from above $45, because the trend line's coming in somewhere above $20. But longer-term, that longer-term trend is still in place.

But I thought as ever, we'd have a look at what was going on in the short term for silver. So here we can see the last week or so, from the price of silver, where we're coming in at the beginning of the chart just below $50, and then towards the end of last week, we see it dip very briefly down to $33.

We have seen - it's early days, but we have seen a little bit of confidence returning to the market. Of course, silver is so volatile, by the time you watch this, it may have moved 10 or 15 per cent in another direction, but based on what we've got at the moment, we have this downtrend that's been in place. We have seen some strength in the beginning of the week, pushing above Friday's high. It's just above $36. And we've seen that strength continue.

So maybe - maybe - the worst of the correction is out of the way for silver for now, at least.

Looking at the RSI, the bottom. Again, we've got this hint of bullish divergence on the RSI. We saw silver trade down on the 5th of May to around about $34, then slip lower to $33 on the 6th of May, but the RSI is making higher highs. So again, higher lows, sorry. So again, it can be a suggestion that that downtrend is starting to run out of steam.

Because it is such a volatile market, if you're trading in this market, clearly you need to give the market time to move around. So it can mean very wide stops. For me, the obvious place to have the stop if the downtrend is over, then we shouldn't be taking out at the most extreme level, the $33 lows from the end of last week.

It's going to be, again, an incredibly interesting market to watch, but maybe over the course of the next few weeks, we'll see silver start to claw back some of these significant losses that were made over the last week.

That's it for me. David Jones at IG Index. You can follow market updates and charts throughout the day on Twitter. And I'm David Jones_IG.

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