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Getting the most out of gold's current trend

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Hemal Darjee at Fat Prophets looks at gold's price trend and shows how we might want to trade a market that looks as though it's going to continue its positive run.

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Michael Hewson, CMC Markets at CMC Markets
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Ashraf Laidi, at AshraLaidi.com
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Steven Mayne, Director at Mayne Financial
Aamer Nawid, Analyst, Fat Prophets

Hello there. This is Hemal Darjee from Fat Prophets and you're joining us on CantosCharts for our last instalment this week.

Today we're going to be looking at gold which has also had a pretty good run along with the equity market over the past week or so and we're going to see how that has actually shaped up from a technical perspective today.

First of all, looking at it from a broader perspective we can see that gold has really been on a very good run since the middle of 2008, once again really just underpinned by this upward sloping green trend line. At the moment prices are currently just trading just shy of the all-time highs which is at $1,576 and that's really indicated by the horizontal red line.

Now, if we have a look at the daily chart, this really just tells us what prices have really been doing of late. We've seen a really strong impulse from the March lows all the way up to the May highs, which is incidentally the all-time highs for gold.

Now, over the last two or three months we've seen prices really form a consolidation pattern, or what we call a symmetrical triangle pattern.

Following this impulse, the consolidation range has really fallen in-between the 50 per cent to 61 per cent retracement zone which is typically sort of like a pullback region that we like to see prices fall back down to, but ideally, we don't like to see prices pullback beyond the 61.8 per cent mark.

So in terms of prices going in a corrective phase, this is sort of just in line with what we're currently looking at.

Now, from an Elliott Wave perspective we've actually labelled each swing from A right through to E. Ideally we would like to see one more dip to the downside to the upward sloping trend line which sort of marks the A and C lows.

However, alternatively, we might not actually get one more pullback to the downside. We may very well just continue to break out of this pattern and really look to test our all-time highs once again.

So this is ideally what we would like to see occur. So a pullback down to E and then look to sort of breakout of the pattern. Again, the reason why we would anticipate prices to break to the upside is because the overall trend is currently up, so we would expect the breakout to occur in the direction of the prevailing trend.

So this is really just outlining both those two types of scenarios. So we could very well break on higher or have one more dip and then continue to breakout.

What we've done here is we've actually just overlapped the daily wave chart on top of the current price action really just to take some of the noise out of the market. So we can see quite clearly that the waves within the triangle are quite sort of apparent and really just marking it from its highs to its lows.

Now if we actually do get sort of a pullback to the downside, this would actually improve, I guess, our risk/reward ratio if we are to sort of get a trade onto gold.

So if we have a dip let's just say to around $1,505 for gold, that would actually be a region where we would be looking to put our stop loss which would, once again, improve the risk to reward ratio.

In terms of a target for gold, however, what we can actually do here is measure the depth of the pattern and then really just project it from the breakout level.

So since we don't know whether the breakout level is currently the B wave high or the D wave high, we've sort of just put it currently in the $1,550 region and that really sort of projects us a target of around sort of $1,665 should prices really just trade to the 100 per cent level for gold.

So all in all, things are looking pretty positive for gold and it's going to be really interesting to see how commodity prices really shape up over the coming trading sessions.

Today this really just wraps us our last edition for CantosCharts for this week. My name is Hemal Darjee from Fat Prophets. Thank you for joining us.

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