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FTSE gains but is this just more 'bouncing around'?

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Looking at the FTSE Futures market, James Hughes asks whether the FTSE has enough strength to break out of its current trading range and shows the important levels we should be keeping an eye on.

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CantosCharts features some of the best technical analysts in the business.

Clive Corcoran, Founder and Publisher, tradewithform.com
Michael Hewson, CMC Markets at CMC Markets
James Hughes, Senior Market Analyst at Alpari
Francis Hunt, Founder and Director, The Market Sniper
Sandy Jadeja, Chief Technical Analyst at City Index
David Jones, Chief Market Strategist at IG Index
Ashraf Laidi, at AshraLaidi.com
David Linton, Chief Executive at Updata.co.uk
Steven Mayne, Director at Mayne Financial
Aamer Nawid, Analyst, Fat Prophets

Hello, and welcome to CantosCharts. My name is James Hughes from financial trading firm Alpari UK. Today we are going to look at one of the indices, and one of the European indices, we are going to look at the FTSE100, but we are going to look at the FTSE100 Futures, which is what Alpari trades on the MetaTrader platform.

Now, as you can see this chart that we've got in place here has a pretty long-term support line in place.

Now this has been pretty key because, again, we have seen the FTSE100 bouncing around. We've got those same old stories which dominate everything - Europe, the sovereign debt crisis there, the US and of course our own problems that we've got in the UK, the poor unemployment figures we've been seeing recently, the high inflation figures we've been seeing. So those issues have really led a lot of people to believe that there's a lot of weakness coming for the UK. But not necessarily shown by the FTSE, because again, the FTSE is bouncing around in between these key levels.

Again, this is a daily chart that we've got here, and we've got an RSI at the bottom, that's the Relative Strength Index, and as you can see this support level on the downside, around 5,500, has really been supporting the market for a long time. This goes back to around August, September 2010. So this level has really been holding for a long time.We've got a number of key tests to that level as well on the downside.

But we've also got that other level on the upside, which is that 6,000 level, which again has been causing some issues. We've broken above it a few times, but of course every time we reach as high as 6,075 or so, a little bit higher than that, we come down pretty aggressively lower.

So we've got this sort of 500 point range on the FTSE at the moment and we've been in that for a long time now, and really February was when we first broke above that 6,000 level for the UK. And again remember this is the futures price, so the price is a little bit low, this is the front month future.

So, we have got these levels on the upside which are really capping everything, but we've got real good support on the downside as well.

Now this is the more longer term chart, and again like we pointed out a couple of days ago on the euro, we have got this same issue where the RSI is in the middle of its range, between 70 and 30 per cent, really pointing to the fact that we are not necessarily going to see anything that big. And if you look at it this is really being supported by the price. We've got this smack bang in the middle of our 6,000 and 5,500 level.

Now if we take this in a little bit closer and look at an hourly chart and look at things over the last few days or so, we are looking at a pretty strong move this week. We've seen a break of last week's lows which is going to be key again, and could really see the market move back down to that key level, that 5,500 level, although if it's a pretty big move, we are looking 200 points or so, but stranger things have happened, especially when we've got these big stories going on with the euro, with the sovereign debt crisis and with the US and worrying about the economy out there as well as the economy in the UK.

If you look at the RSI on the hourly chart we are getting dangerously close to this 30 per cent. Now anything a touch or below that 30 per cent level is showing that the market is that little bit oversold. But we are getting to this over-sold level after we've broken last week's low on the FTSE.

So we can pretty much disregard last week's low now as being broken. They are always an important figure when we look to another week, so those last week's highs and lows will be important. A break of last week's low, looking to go lower, but the RSI pointing out that we could be about to see the market bounce that little bit higher, which will make us again, going back to this chart, make us again not necessarily have to worry about that 5,500 level.

So, it's going to be interesting to see how things materialise over the next couple of days, but with the 30 per cent level approaching dangerously and if we do see a slight break below that, that's when the buyers will be looking back in it. It's telling us the market is oversold, and we could be looking for a bounce back up maybe through last week's lows and back up to some highs of our own this week.

So it's going to be an important few days for the FTSE100, and it will be interesting to see if these stories, these global stories continue to cause the issue.

Thank you for listening. My name is James Hughes from financial trading firm Alpari UK. You can follow me on Twitter @jhughes00.

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