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FTSE downside target - and it could go lower

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Sandy Jadeja identifies a downside target for FTSE and how we might play the market's "choppy" price action - plus there's some advice for those who might find current trading conditions a little too hot.

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CantosCharts features some of the best technical analysts in the business.

Clive Corcoran, Founder and Publisher, tradewithform.com
Michael Hewson, CMC Markets at CMC Markets
James Hughes, Senior Market Analyst at Alpari
Francis Hunt, Founder and Director, The Market Sniper
Sandy Jadeja, Chief Technical Analyst at City Index
David Jones, Chief Market Strategist at IG Index
Ashraf Laidi, at AshraLaidi.com
David Linton, Chief Executive at Updata.co.uk
Steven Mayne, Director at Mayne Financial
Aamer Nawid, Analyst, Fat Prophets

Hello and welcome to CantosCharts Masterclass. I'm Sandy Jadeja, Chief Technical Analyst for City Index and welcome back to another report on the current market analysis.

As always, this is simply for information and educational purposes only and today we're going to focus on the FTSE100, just giving you an update from where we left off last time. Of course, the market is playing in a very volatile environment right now and a lot of traders are looking for key price levels and that's what we'll focus on today.

Well first of all, just to highlight that we did look at this previous chart here on a monthly basis and that had told us that the A, B, C, D correction had taken place. So now looking for this market to correct itself on lower timeframes.

Our downside target had been 4,781. The FTSE has met that support level. Now if we move along to the weekly chart, we know that there are two things taking place. First of all, momentum still remains weak, although it is now starting to turn towards the upside, but the index on a weekly chart still remains below its 20 week moving average.

Now also notice that the parabolic indicator had been broken. Nothing has changed on that side right now and also, momentum has also shown us that there has been a divergence between momentum as well as price and that's suggesting that as the FTSE100 was moving sideways, momentum was weakening and at the moment, there is no signs suggesting that the momentum is strengthening on a greater degree.

So at the moment the FTSE100, in terms of candlesticks charts, has given us a clear reversal pattern and that's telling us that the 4,780 should hold and as long as that holds, we are probably going to face choppy price action between 4,780 to upper side resistance and that's not saying that the 4,780 can be broken. There are still opportunities if the market takes a severe downturn for that to break and head towards much lower levels.

But at the moment, on the daily chart, we also had a hammer pattern taking place. But right now, 5,380 is proving to be resistance on the short-term basis. If 5,380 has not been overcome, my downside target is coming to much lower price levels in the coming weeks. But at the moment, as I said, we are looking for choppy price action between 4,780 to that 5,380 level.

Now, on the short-term, we want to see, in terms of patterns, we want to see a move towards the downside which will be the correction as wave two, or a wave B, and then a move towards the upside above 5,380. Once we clear 5,380 we'll be looking towards 5,517 and then 5,600. 5,715 is the maximum that is the FTSE reaching, but 5,600 is the key level towards the upside.

As always, make sure that you keep an eye on the intermediate term timeframe because that's really where the bigger picture is taking place. On the short-term timeframe, this is where you're going to be using your entry and your exit signals. At the moment, I still expect to see this choppy price action to continue well into the latter part of August and the early part of September. I think longer term, we're probably going to still break below that 4,780. Now that's saying that the current trend is now turning bearish and the longer term trend on the monthly charts has also turned bearish.

So make sure that all the indicators are bearish on the lower term timeframe to initiate further short positions and look for clear signals for reversals and that's where I would be using either the parabolics or the candlesticks charts. If you're finding that the volatility is too much, it's probably better to stand aside on these markets right now. Right across the commodity markets on crude oil, gold, we're seeing an increase in volatility as well the currencies, so it's probably best to stay tuned to CantosCharts Masterclass in the coming weeks or so and we'll provide you with the key highlight levels for these various markets.

In the meantime, have a safe trading week. This is Sandy Jadeja for CantosCharts Masterclass.

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