28 Jul 2010
BAT - Half year results 2010
25 Feb 2010
BAT - Preliminary results 2009
30 Jul 2009
BAT - Half year results 2009
26 Feb 2009
BAT - Preliminary results 2008
31 Jul 2008
BAT - Interim results 2008
28 Feb 2008
BAT - Preliminary results 2007
26 Jul 2007
BAT - Interim results 2007
01 Mar 2007
BAT - Preliminary results 2006
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You're watching our latest programming from British American Tobacco
How do you judge the Group's underlying performance?
I think we had an excellent performance in 2009. If you look at our volume, it grew by 1 per cent. Our Global Drive Brands grew by over 4 per cent. Revenue was up 17 per cent. And our earnings per share and dividends are up 19 per cent, which is not bad in a recession year.
And, even if you take out the effect of currency, our revenue is still up 10 per cent, and our profit was up 10 per cent. So, pretty good going.
But what are seeing in terms of volume trends, because Q3 was somewhat disappointing? What happened in Q4?
You're right, Q3 was disappointing. We were down 6 per cent, which wasn't representative of the year; the year was down organically 3 per cent. Now in Q4, our decline was 2.4 per cent. So we came back in Q4. Our revenue was up and our profit was up. And share looked pretty good, stable to slightly up in Q4.
You've maintained the 65 per cent payout ratio, but you've not announced a reinstatement of the share buyback programme. Why is that?
Share buybacks remain very much on our agenda. We like returning cash to shareholders. In fact, we returned as much cash to shareholders in 2009, with the dividends, as we did in 2008 with the dividends and the £400m share buyback that year. So we do return cash to shareholders and, with a 19 per cent increase in dividends this year, there's still more cash returned to shareholders.
We do have to bear in mind our debt, the cash requirements that we may have in the future and also the investment credit rating. So, taking all into account, we think that we are right to just pause for a moment and keep the share buyback suspended, but give that very healthy return on dividend.
With foreign exchange being such an important factor behind earnings growth, is a dividend at this level really sustainable?
We understand the importance of dividends to our shareholders, and particularly dividend growth. We think a 65 per cent payout is the right level. But that is not a constraint and it's not a ceiling. If we have to go above it to maintain dividend growth, then we will.
You've seen falling volumes in many of your markets and brands in 2009. What can you say about price and mix in your markets today?
Overall, global volumes fell by around 2.0 - 2.5 per cent last year, which is almost double the rate that it's been declining in previous years. So, yes, some big markets have been declining.
We haven't done too badly on the share front, I might point out, both in terms of our brands and you pointed out our brand decline. In fact, our Global Drive Brands grew by 4 per cent.
Our price mix has been pretty good too, around 8.0 - 8.5 per cent on price mix, which is pretty good going.
Is that, though, sustainable in what is generally a low-inflation world? And is this a contributory factor to your falling volumes?
You have to stay up with the basket of goods in inflation terms. And there are certain markets, for example, Russia, where cigarette prices over the last five years have not really kept up with disposable income. So, you're right, we have to be very careful about taking price increases in markets where the economies are stressed. But, at the same time, I think that if you've got a 10 per cent increase in revenues, as we did in constant currency last year, we're getting that balance between volume and price increase pretty well right.
Similarly, isn't the recession also causing an increase in down-trading and illicit trading?
Yes. We've talked about this before. Certainly, there's down-trading, as one might imagine in a recession. But it's not just a simple case of everyone just down-trading to the next price point below where they were. We're seeing lots of different sort of movements. And, in some markets, you're actually seeing the premium segment growing. For example, in Brazil and Venezuela and Turkey.
So we are seeing some premium growth in some markets. And we're seeing polarisation. So we're seeing premium growth and we're seeing growth in low-price and a squeeze on mid-price.
Of course, the most worrying aspect of down-trading is when you get down-trading from the legitimate market into the lower-priced contraband market, which is no good at all.
But down-trading is an issue. We've done pretty well, though, I would say, whereby our premium volume declined about the same rate as our mid-price volume and our low-price volume. So we haven't seen a disproportionate down-trade from premium.
So do you expect to see a recovery in volumes in 2010? And if so, where can we see it first?
I think the big uncertainty is still around market sizes. What's going to happen to industry volumes in some of these big markets? And until we get a good read on what's going to happen to unemployment and what that means in terms of purchasing and also excise, I think those uncertainties are still going to remain.
Having said that, I tend to think that the worst is over and whilst overall global volume will decline in 2010, I don't think it will be at the same rate as it was in 2009. So let's say 2009 was 2.0 - 2.5 per cent decline, I think 2010 will be around 2 per cent.
In terms of our own volume, I would see - again, with some caveats in terms of certainty - our own volume being down round about 1.5 - 2.0 per cent organically.
In terms of where that's going to happen, I see Asia Pacific Region growing volume. I see Africa Middle East growing volume. I think it's going to be tough to grow volume in Western Europe and I think Eastern Europe remains one of the big uncertainties; we'll have to see how that goes there. And I think the Americas will go quite well.
Do you see any signs of governments trying to alleviate their budget deficits by ramping up duty on tobacco?
Yes, there's been a number of markets where governments have ratcheted up excise quite considerably. We've seen that in Romania, the Ukraine, Greece, Turkey and Brazil, for example. But, generally speaking, I think governments have been quite rational and sensible about it. And hopefully - fingers crossed - that will continue.
Looking more broadly at potential limitations on labelling, displays, vending machines, etc., what's BAT's view here?
I think we would support any legislation that's based on sound science and proportionality; in other words, if it's reasonable and sensible legislation. I think we would not classify some of the examples that you've given as either reasonable or sensible. For example, the display ban, there's no credible evidence for that. Or vending machines, where there are other options than just banning vending machines.
In terms of our options, obviously we would try and prevail in terms of our argumentation, but if that doesn't work, I think as a last resort we are prepared to consider going for a legal review.
Do you think that the regulatory controls that have been talked about in the UK will spread to other regions? Clearly as smoking bans appeared in markets like Eastern Europe, that would have a big impact on your business.
Smoking bans are already in Eastern Europe, and as smoking bans are rolling out around the world, I think that's mostly been done now. There are relatively few markets where smoking restrictions of one kind or another aren't there.
In terms of display bans, we have that already in Canada. It's been talked about in Australia, and I think there is already a display ban in Tasmania. But, interestingly, in New Zealand, which is not particularly laissez-faire in terms of tobacco control, they're not going to do display bans, because the Prime Minister doesn't think there's any evidence to support it. And we tend to agree with him.
Given all we've talked about and the fragility of the macro economic climate out there, are you changing any of your mid- to long-term growth targets?
I don't think the middle of a recession is the best time to actually recalibrate your mid- to long-term targets. So, no, we're not going to do that.
What I would say though is that, as we've shown in the past, we're trying very hard to beat our mid- to long-term targets.
So how do you see 2010 for BAT?
As I've said, I think there's still some uncertainty around out there in terms of market sizes, because of the uncertainty around excise increases, excise shocks and unemployment. But, generally speaking, I think the worst is over in terms of volume declines and down-trading.
I think we've got a lot going for us, going into 2010. I think we have good momentum. Pricing momentum still is good; a few skirmishes out there but generally speaking, pricing momentum is good. I'm pretty confident we can grow our Global Drive Brands at or slightly above the level of growth that we got in 2009. And exchange rates are working for us so far.
We've got very good firepower in terms of our innovation pipeline in terms of innovations that we know work are already out in the marketplace and working that we can roll out into more markets and totally new innovations that are in our pipeline. So I feel good about the innovation.
So I think we go into 2010 with a lot of momentum, and I'm pretty confident that we can still deliver in 2010.
FORWARD LOOKING STATEMENT: Past share performance cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance.
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