22 Jul 2009
GlaxoSmithKline - Q2 and half year results
05 Feb 2009
GlaxoSmithKline - Q4 and full year results
23 Jul 2008
GlaxoSmithKline - Interim results 2008
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What for you are the highlights in today's results?
2009 was always going to be a challenging year for GSK. We continued to face a lot of genericisation of our older products in the US. But overall I think it's been a very strong performance from the Company. We've seen a return to sales growth for the first time since 2007. Sales are up 3%. We've seen tremendous performance, particularly from our new products across the Group. In fact, last year, new products, those which we've only launched in the last two or three years contributed £1.3b of new sales to our turnover.
And of course I believe the Company responded extraordinarily well to the challenges laid down by the pandemic flu concerns. That in itself generated significant sales for the Company, both through the supply of vaccine, other materials, and of course, Relenza, during the year. Altogether that has delivered for us, I believe, a very, very creditable performance.
Can you talk me through the EPS number of 121.2p? On one side that seems to be flattered by the one-off accounting for ViiV. On the other side it seems to be held back by legal charges. What is actually in that number?
Well I think you really put your finger on exactly the point. The core operating performance of the Group has been extremely strong. We've seen a return to growth. We are seeing a very strong capability of this company to work its way through the genericisation headwinds which are clearly beginning to reduce now. The tailwinds, if you will, which is the very strong performance of our increasingly diversified company, the growth of our consumer business, emerging markets, Japan, and also the recovery of our portfolio in our core markets, with new products, £1.3b of new sales, that's really driven a very, very strong operating performance for the Group in what was always going to be a challenging year.
Now you're right to highlight there are essentially, if you will, two kind of one-offs. One is the accounting gain on the transaction of creating our HIV joint venture with Pfizer. And it's almost netted off, if you will, by an increase in our legal costs associated with some old historic cases which we continue to work to closure but, from time to time, we have to increase our provisions to more accurately align with how we think they're ultimately, potentially going to settle out.
And those two things happened in the fourth quarter. And what we've tried to do in the results is be very clear, very transparent, highlight those two, if you will, one-off events. Hopefully people will then be able to see very clearly the very strong performance of the core business in what was always going to be a tough year. And actually, we've delivered sales growth for the first time now since 2007.
But this is the second year that we're seeing these increased legal costs having an impact. So is that really a one-off going forward?
Well our legal costs are very difficult to predict. Unfortunately it's the nature of our sector that all companies in this space have a variety of legal exposure and, to be honest, largely in the US environment. They're very difficult to predict, and in many cases, they're related to cases which are many, many years old. We do our absolute best to try and ensure that we have the right assessment of what the potential costs of these cases are and they have to be adjusted as facts evolve or mature in each individual case. That's very difficult to predict.
Now, if you ask me going forward, what do you think a reasonable run rate for legal might be, then I'd probably say, based on history, given that I can't predict accurately every year, I would say a reasonable estimate of somewhere in the £450m a year is probably a reasonable estimate based on what we've seen in the past. So it's unlikely that number is ever going to be zero. Can I promise it's never higher than that number? No, I can't. But a reasonable estimate around £450m.
And sticking with costs, the cost of sales and SG&A cost have both increased. What's behind that?
Well what's really going on, if you look at the overall business, is you've got tremendous change happening here at GSK. And the first thing I really want to make clear, I repeat something I've said many, many times in the last two years since I took over - I'm not running this business as a slave to a margin percentage. I'm running the business to ensure that we have a business which is capable of growing in the short, medium and long run. To do that we're having to diversify our sources of growth and we have to recognise that within that, of course, we will see different margins.
So, for example, our consumer business in 2009 grew 7%. That's the fastest growth of any consumer company in the world. That's an incredible performance. But, our consumer business has a lower margin than our pharmaceutical business. A great example of where we're prepared to go for growth, even though we know it's slightly lower margin. That's one of the reasons why you see margins reduce at places like cost of goods because the mix is more consumer products, and less of the old and very high-margin pharma products, for example, from America, because they are being lost to generics.
So the real story is that you're seeing genericisations of high-margin pharma products, replaced with growth of new slightly lower margin products in areas like consumer healthcare, overall delivering more growth of sales, and importantly, more growth of profit. And that's exactly the strategy we're going forward in.
So you've seen that kind of mix. Now, again, where is this going in the future because there's a question of transition? And when does transition, if you will, stop and you start to see the new future? And as we're guiding today, my expectation for 2010 is that our overall operating margin will be broadly similar to the 2009 operating margin. So what that tells you is that we believe much of that transition is now behind us, not surprisingly because we're coming towards the end of the genericisation effect and we've clearly declared our hands where we want to see the growth come from.
We've seen a lot of speculation that the H1N1 effect may not continue into 2010. There may be some cancellations, renegotiations of contracts. What are you seeing?
Well we're working closely with governments, as we have for the last year or so, to try and ensure that we're doing our absolute best to meet their needs. Right now my expectation is that our vaccine sales for pandemic preparations will be about the same in 2010 as they were in 2009.
Your diversification strategy of moving into emerging markets does appear to be working. So are you going to accelerate activity here?
Well, first of all, I've got no doubt that the strategy to diversify and move resources to invest behind our consumer, emerging market, Japanese businesses, build up our biopharm business, is why we're back to growth so quickly. Without that we would have been facing tremendous losses of business in the US through genericisation and, like many other companies in this sector, be looking at prolonged periods of slowdown. That's not the situation at GSK.
This company has made the right moves over the last several years, and particularly in the last two to open up new sources of growth. And you're absolutely right. You should expect to see us continue to divert resources to where we can generate the absolute best return.
Now, our US pharmaceutical and European pharmaceutical businesses are huge businesses. They have tremendous opportunity in the future as our R&D pipeline delivers to them. And so, of course, we'll invest there. But where we see incremental growth opportunities in the key areas we've identified, this isn't anywhere, but in the key areas, emerging markets, Japan, consumer, vaccines, biopharmaceuticals - in those areas, we'll be looking for superior returns and if we can find them we'll invest behind it, whether that's organically or through acquisition.
Now you talked quite a bit about consumer and the industry-leading sales growth you're seeing there. Firstly, I'm trying to understand how are you achieving that? And secondly, why can that be sustained? Is there any way that can be sustained?
I think the achievement is a real credit to our consumer healthcare team. We have a very strong team, very experienced and a team which has really focused on getting the simple things right. So, for example, we have great brands. There's no doubt. You look at our brand portfolio, whether you look at our nutritional brands, such as Lucozade, Horlicks, Ribena, in toothpaste, Sensodyne, the fastest growing toothpaste in the world. In our Over The Counter portfolio, legacy brands such as Panadol, brand new brands such as Alli. So these are global brands with tremendous track records, tremendous capacity to grow year in year out. So the whole thing is built on a strong belief in those core brands, first.
Second, what you've seen over the last two years is a huge increase in our investment in innovation. So since I've taken over we've almost doubled the amount we spend on consumer innovation. That's investing in new formulations or new versions of the brands to keep our brands current and to keep them of interest to today's consumer.
The second or third area, I should say, that we've also focused on is really rebuild our advertising and promotion behind our brand. So if we want retailers to make sure our brands are stocked and that customers get the chance to see and try our brands, we have to support our brands. And what you've seen over the last few years is significant increase in the amount we spend on advertising and promotion. There's no doubt that that decision has underpinned our ability to grow market share during 2009, during the recession, and where we've been able to grow at around 7% when the marketplace we compete in is only growing around 2%. That's because of the investment we've made.
And then the final part is all about quality of message. And so I can tell you, we test every single ad we run in this company for a consumer business. And right now we're seeing about 83% of our ads receive upper quartile response from consumers. Why's that important? It means that that money we're spending is relevant to what consumers want to listen to. All of what I've just described reflects a professional, capable consumer skill set. That's why we're delivering the growth that we are.
And you've also talked about Japan quite a bit. What is the opportunity you see in Japan?
Well Japan is really a developed emerging market, if I can put it that way. It's a tremendously sophisticated healthcare environment, a very substantial volume marketplace, with very reasonable prices. It's also, at its heart, at the consumer level, a pro-innovation marketplace. But for many years companies, including this one, have found it difficult to navigate, if you will, some of the regulatory and other systems to find a way into the market.
Now, over the last several years, we've really dedicated a specific focus in our R&D and particularly development organisation, to fix that. And what you're seeing now is wave after wave of major new products introduced into Japan. So what the Japanese story really is is an opportunity for us to introduce products which were introduced in American and Europe 10 years ago, to introduce today's products, and also to catch up on next-generation products. So we have, from the end of 2007 to the end of 2012, something like 40 products to launch, of which we've already launched about half. And that's what's driving this growth.
Now the other thing I would say, and I pay real credit to our team in Japan, we've also begun to make progress in opening up the vaccine market in Japan, both through partnerships with local Japanese companies and institutes, but also as signalled by the Japanese government's decision to acquire some of their pandemic vaccine from GSK. Again, the first time the Japanese government have made the decision to import flu vaccine to Japan.
All of that is what's really coming together to start to now demonstrate that this big marketplace can actually become a big business for GSK. And Japan is something I expect to see sustained growth from in the future.
You've announced a proposed reduction to the R&D infrastructure and a decision to move away from some areas of research - things like depression. There's obviously been a lot of noise in the media about potential job losses at GSK. What are your plans?
Well, first of all, let me be very clear. I'm completely confident and very positive about the strategy that we've laid out for R&D over the last couple of years. And I'm absolutely confident it's delivering. That's why, during 2009, we had £1.3b of new sales from new products. So I'm very confident about what's happening. The discovery performance unit that we created a couple of years ago really starting to make a change in the way discovery operates. And the efficiencies we're driving in development are allowing us to keep 30 projects in phase 3 without massively increasing our R&D spend. So for all of that I'm very, very pro.
The challenge is, notwithstanding having a good strategy, not withstanding having the kind of delivery we have, I believe we ought to be continuously looking for how we might improve the rate of return on the investment money that shareholders allow us to commit to R&D. And that's really what we've tried to focus on and so there are really two areas where I believe that that was possible.
One is, whether we could reduce the amount of cost absorbed by fixed infrastructure, really, if you will, the hangover of the creation of the modern R&D industry in the 1980s, lots of fixed buildings. Today everything's much more virtual, more partnership-orientated. We're still carrying a lot of that cost. And then secondly are there specific areas of research where, for whatever reason, we just no longer believe we have the same likelihood of success, or perhaps the cost of being successful makes it unattractive compared to others. And that's why we've made proposals today, subject to consultation, which really look at potentially reducing our investment in the neuroscience area, in areas such as pain and depression. And we believe that that makes sense, both in terms of the infrastructure piece, but also in terms of recognising that there are different probabilities of success between different areas, and we have to make choices. And the proposals we're making today really speak directly to that.
Now obviously I don't like to see anybody leave the organisation or there to be any job losses. But the reality is that, we do, from time to time, need to look at ways in which we can improve our probability of success. The proposals we're making today are exactly in that theme.
You're also making a fairly bold and, I think, possibly even unprecedented move, by giving an estimate for the rate of return on your late stage pipeline. You're estimating 11%, an aspiration even to move to 14% over time. How have you arrived at those particular figures?
First of all, I think it's important to acknowledge that if you want a shareholder to give you permission to spend £3b or £3.5b on R&D, it's only reasonable that there should be some sense of what the return rate might be. I think it's also reasonable to acknowledge that, as an industry over the last 10 or 15 years, the return rates from R&D spend hasn't been very good. That's why many companies have been facing a drought in their pipeline. Now at GSK, we're not suffering from that. But as an industry, it's clearly been an issue.
So we've been focused on how we can improve our R&D output and we believe today, that we have a late-stage pipeline which, if it delivers what we expect it to over the next 10, 15, 20 years of sales, is capable of delivering around an 11% rate of return. Not bad - much better than people would probably have believed, say, seven or eight years ago. So, an improvement.
But I don't think we need to stop there. I think what we ought to be saying is we're going to set ourselves an aspiration to do better than that. We want to continue to try and find ways to improve our rate of return. How? By making better decisions, by being more efficient, focusing on areas where we believe we have a higher probability of success and, of course, making them commercially successful in the marketplace.
And so, as a result, we set an aspiration to try and further improve that rate of return by about another 25% to somewhere around 14%. And that's really the roadmap we're beginning to lay out for ourselves to make sure that we stay focused on something which we believe is important to shareholders.
It's clear, this focus you have on returns to shareholders. And we're seeing the dividend in 2009 up 7% to 61p. Is this what we can expect going forward into 2010?
Well clearly our strategy is to ensure that we continue to drive growth in this organisation and also then to make sure that we're delivering a progressive dividend to our shareholders. So we believe very strongly in the importance of returning funds to shareholders and the dividend is the absolute primary policy and our number-one priority.
You've talked about how diversification helps to combat and offset genericisation to some extent. But we've got Valtrex off patent now, Advair is still at risk. Is it really going to be enough?
Well clearly my challenge is to make sure that the answer to that is, yes. Our goal, number-one strategy is to deliver sales growth on a diversified global basis, and that's been everything we're focused on doing. Many people will have missed this because it kind of creeps up on you year after year. But in 2007, 2008 and 2009, this company lost to generics and Avandia, £4.5b of sales. But in the same period, we actually grew by £500m. Now £500m might not seem to be by very much but what that tells you is in that three-year period we added £5b of new business to this company, over the '07, '08, '09 period. That's an enormous shift, £4.5b out £5b in.
Now, as we go forward, that loss rate of genericisations will start to come down. You're aware that we have Valtrex to deal with this year. It's already started. We've already got two or three months behind us. So we're rapidly moving through this phase. The whole situation on Advair is very complex. It's more complex for people who are trying to attack GSK than it probably is for GSK. That's fine. We'll leave it at that. We're in a position where we're seeing our headwinds diminish, deteriorate, if you will, and our potential to grow those engines, new product flows, new diversified businesses, those are looking very strong. And I believe that that's going to really underpin our future and it's why I think the prospects look good for us.
As you look into 2010, what are you expecting? What's going to drive your performance?
2010 is going to be a year of maintaining the very strong momentum we began last year, so continuing to see growth in our consumer business, continuing to see growth in our emerging markets and Japanese businesses. Importantly, starting to see the introduction of some further new products in our pharmaceutical business and vaccine business. So, for example, we've just launched Synflorix, a very important new vaccine. We're just rolling out Cervarix in America, another great opportunity to start to get our US business back into positive territory in terms of growth.
We'll of course see a reduction as we go through the year of some of the negatives from generics which is an important dynamic. And then as we get to the end of the year and into 2011, I think we start to move to some very interesting opportunities, in particular products like Benlysta, the first new potential medicine for the treatment of lupus.
So as we go forward, I think you have every probability of seeing the Group active on all fronts. So whereas maybe last year you might say well the pharmaceutical business was a little bit, kind of, in defence because the US was under so much pressure, I think as we go into this year you'll see all of those same growth businesses be top priority, be priorities for us to see continue. But I think you'll start to see that pharma pipeline start to deliver more and more. You'll see the US business start to move forward, and that obviously lays tremendous foundations for the future.
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