22 Jul 2009
GlaxoSmithKline - Q2 and half year results
05 Feb 2009
GlaxoSmithKline - Q4 and full year results
23 Jul 2008
GlaxoSmithKline - Interim results 2008
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Your results for Q2 are pretty much in line with consensus but, at a group level, we're seeing sales a little bit flat. What's your take on these numbers?
I think if you look at the first half this year, we're up seven per cent. And if you exclude the pandemic vaccine shipments, we're up one per cent at an underlying level. A little bit slower in Q2 than Q1, simply because of some one-off hits that we took in Q2. So, for example, the suspension of the Rotarix vaccine temporarily in the U.S., now back fully on-stream, but nonetheless had a negative effect and some acceleration in the decline of Avandia, which again, took some of the gloss off the Q2 performance.
But overall, I'm confident, in terms of the performance of the business. And the reason why we're able to deliver that growth is the very strong performances we're seeing in our Emerging Markets business again, continued strong performance there, in our Vaccine business, in our Consumer business and in Japan. So all of those growth businesses, where we've been allocating capital really relentlessly over the last couple of years, are really offsetting some of the negative pressures we've been feeling, particularly in the United States, which were exacerbated a little bit in Q2 versus Q1, through some of these one-offs I've just described. But overall, I continue to feel very confident about the year and where we're going as a business, because as a business, we're clearly moving through a lot of these headwinds and we're building up more and more tailwind to our business. And that's exactly what we're trying to achieve.
The EPS number in Q2 is low. But how much of that is about the £1.57 billion legal charge?
Well a very significant amount. Excluding the legal charge that we announced last week, to resolve a lot of our longstanding litigation liabilities in the United States, that EPS number would have been around 29 pence per share, versus the 2.5 pence per share that we announced. So there is obviously a huge difference. And I think, in terms of the underlying performance, excluding legal, that this was, again, a good quarter for the company.
So you're telling me that you've now drawn a line under litigation risk for GSK?
Well unfortunately, I can never tell you we've drawn a line under litigation risk because it is an ever-present threat, particularly if you trade in the United States where litigation unfortunately is a fact of life, in business and in life generally, in the U.S. But what we have been able to do, and we announced it last week, is we've been able to bring to a close or progress toward closure a substantial part of our historic litigation burden, and particularly some of the bigger cases, which have been around for a long time. It was important for us to try and bring closure to these things. And I think we've been able to do it in a way which does bring certainty for our shareholders and does begin to close off or has already closed off a number of these cases. So I'm quite happy with where we've got to and what we were able to announce last week.
If you're confident about the safety of Avandia, why was it necessary to make this one-off payment to settle the majority of these cases?
Well in any product liability situation, a company has to look at the kind of allegations which have been made and the cost of defence, versus the opportunities to settle. And not unusually, in this situation and in many other situations for us and other companies, we took the view that it was actually in the best interest of the company's shareholders to go ahead and achieve settlement on terms that we believe were reasonable for the company, rather than to go through very long, protracted and potentially very expensive defence in this particular area.
Now, having said that, very often we might take a different decision and go ahead and really fight it out in the courts for a particular point. But on this particular occasion, we decided this was the best course of action for the company.
And what do you think comes next in the Avandia Adcom? Do you think the FDA will accept the finding of the Adcom?
I don't know yet what the FDA action will be. We're waiting to see what they have to say. As you know, of course, they've called this advisory board. They, I'm sure, will take the input and advice that they've received. And we look forward to working with the agency on whatever next steps they deem necessary.
You continue to diversify into emerging and developing markets. We've seen deals in Argentina. We've seen deals in South Korea. Are you doing enough here to really seize the opportunity?
Well what's important in terms of our bolt-on acquisition strategy is we're very focused on the areas where we want to invest, so for example, in the emerging markets, as you described, in areas like Vaccines and in areas like Consumer to underpin our diversification points of the business. So we're very focused, from that point of view. We're also focused on making sure we get good value for money in our acquisitions. So we're not going to pay any price. And that means that the deal flow, if you will, the number of transactions we might execute in any given quarter, will be a little bit up and down. But what's important is we stay disciplined, disciplined in supporting our strategy and disciplined in how we allocate our capital and do it efficiently. I'm actually quite comfortable with the number of transactions we do and I think it's very manageable for us to do this number of transactions. It allows us to stay focused on extracting the value from each deal that we do without becoming overwhelmed with deals and losing sight of the ones that we did last year, for example. So I'm actually pretty comfortable with that flow, as it stands. I'm not going to guarantee that we do this many deals every quarter. Maybe next quarter we'll do more. Maybe we'll do less. It just depends on whether or not we see those opportunities and we can get them done at we believe generates the best return for GSK shareholders.
How much of an impact are you seeing from the U.S. healthcare reforms, from the E.U. austerity measures? And what, if anything, can you do about that?
Well there's no doubt, both in the U.S. and Europe, that price has moved adversely over the last six or nine months. And I'm sure we're going to continue to see that phenomenon over the next year or so, maybe longer, who knows, as governments deal with their deficit reduction. Now in Europe, we've long been used to having year-on-year price reductions, somewhere in the range of about three per cent. At this point in time it's a little hard to tell whether we're going to see something very significant above that rate. My guess is we'll probably see something above that rate, maybe not too much, but we'll see. It's early days.
In the United States, for sure, healthcare reform has led to some short-term negative impact on pricing during this year and next year, as the various components of the reform package come through. And I think that over time, we will continue to see the U.S. become a less positive environment for price than it has been over the last 15 or 20 years.
Now those are changes. What we need to make sure, as a business, is that we're changing accordingly. So that means we have to be focused on demonstrating value for money. It means we have to be differentiated in our medicines. It means we have to be very disciplined in the way we price our products and, particularly in the United States, how we run our discounts on our products, which is a very major part of the pricing model in the U.S.
So yes, there are changes in the macro environment. But these are changes we have to react to and we have to respond to. And we're doing that in the way we're developing our business model and how we focus on trying to ensure that we can really demonstrate value to those customers.
Sales at three per cent in Q2 in Consumer Healthcare is above the market level but quite a bit below the nine per cent we saw in Q1. Is that a bit of a worrying trend?
No, I'm not concerned at all about Consumer, actually. If you look at the underlying performance of our Consumer business, adjusted for the stocking effect last year when we launched Alli weight loss medicine in Europe, which is a very significant pipeline fill for the European business. Remember, we launched every European country on the same day, which is an unprecedented achievement. But of course it meant a lot of stock and inventory went into pipelines all over Europe. If you correct for that, year on year, then our underlying growth for Consumer this year, this quarter, was six per cent.
And I've said many, many times that I think our Consumer run rate, in the way we now support that business with full commitment to advertising and promotion campaigns, great programs on innovation and acquisitions, I think this business is a six per cent to seven per cent sales growth rate business. And the underlying performance in the quarter was bang-on where I would expect it to be.
In Q2, you announced five new drugs moving into the late-stage pipeline. How much does this reflect the success you've had in the reorganisation of R&D?
Well there's no doubt that having five new medicines go into the pipeline is really an unprecedented achievement, I think for the company and I think, maybe, for any company, it's a very significant number. Now that's been achieved through a variety of the changes we've made through R&D to try to create a better sense of accountability and stimulate innovation inside the company and also through our externalisation.
So one of these medicines in particular came from outside, through one of our most recent deals, in a rare disease field. One came through a partnership which we set up a few years ago in HIV. And others came from within our own organisation. So it's a nice representation of our blended R&D approach. And we have that blended approach to try and get the most efficient output from R&D. So it's of course important to be innovative but we also need to make sure we can do that and make an economic return and be efficient. And I think what this reflects is the outcome of many of those changes we've made over the years. And I'm delighted to see a continued success in bringing forward a variety of what I think are potentially pretty differentiated medicines which will be medicines which fit the environment that we see developing around the world and I hope will underpin the next wave of growth in the company in a few years' time.
You have been giving detail on margins, on sales, at quite a specific level, even product level, notably in emerging markets, but this time not on Consumer Healthcare, what's the thinking there?
Well let me make a couple of points. First of all, we're absolutely committed to helping our investors and analysts understand our business, which is why we've actually been pretty aggressively increasing the amount of transparency on our business, for example, on our segment reporting and then this quarter around Emerging Markets down to the product level.
But there was one area where, if anything, maybe we've gone too far in terms of transparency and that was in Consumer. And the reason for that is that in the Consumer business, of course, we compete with other consumer companies who don't necessarily publish at that level of detail and who are, themselves, looking at any clue we can give them about what we're doing or how we're investing our resources.
And we actually took the view and came to the conclusion that perhaps this was a competitive disadvantage in that particular area. And that's why we've taken the view to stop publishing that data. So there's a trade-off. I'm sure every investor would like to have greater transparency, but not at the cost of competitiveness. But on other areas, like emerging markets and in Pharma, we've provided even more detail. So there's no issue about reducing overall transparency. I think it's just a horses-for-courses judgment. I think it's the right judgment.
At a time when dividend payments are very much in focus, you're increasing your dividend. What signal do you believe you're sending out?
The most important signal we're sending around our dividend is confidence in the business and a sustained delivery against the commitment we've made certainly since I've been CEO, of delivering a progressive dividend increase, up again seven per cent this quarter, to 15 pence per share. And I think, if you look over the last several years where you've seen this dividend rise pretty much every quarter, a real evidence of our desire to return cash to shareholders. A substantial portion of our free cash flow goes back to shareholders through the dividend. And this is simply a further demonstration that is our number one priority, to deliver growth in this organisation, be competitive and return the proceeds of that to shareholders in a progressive manner. And that's exactly what we've done again this quarter.
What are you expecting from the second half and beyond 2010, as the balance between genericisation and new products starts to move in your favour? What can we expect to see in 2011 and beyond?
As we go forward, and I've said previously, my sense of confidence for GSK remains undiminished. I think that much of the very major strategic challenges that the group has faced are moving behind us. We've seen a very substantial degree of genericisation headwind now begin to move behind us, particularly by the end of this year. And as we go forward, the contribution of the businesses we've been investing in, like Emerging Markets, Consumer and Vaccines, simply represent bigger and bigger proportions of the total. Our exposure to what I call the 'Western market, white pill', those products which are easy to genericise and copy, is falling all of the time, this quarter only 26 per cent of the overall business. So our exposure on those businesses, which in the past have been so vulnerable, reduces. And of course new pipeline products are arriving all the time for the core R&D business.
So that balance of headwinds and tailwinds is moving more and more in our favour. That makes me confident for the future. We've got to recognise, though, that the environment is tougher now and it probably is going to be tougher in the next few years than it was in the last few, due to government deficit reduction programs, economic environment and the like. There's going to be more price pressure and therefore, that's something we have to bear in mind. But, notwithstanding those sorts of pressures, we believe that GSK is moving much more into a positive phase than it has been for quite some time.
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