Previously on Global Forecast
- 18 Apr 2011
One more ECB rate rise due – but no euro surge - 16 Mar 2011
Japan economy strong enough to bounce back - 16 Feb 2011
UK rates will rise in first half - 27 Jan 2011
Interest rates on hold despite inflation fears
- 15 Dec 2010
Gloom for many in 2011 - 17 Nov 2010
Ireland's fall - no reason to regret cuts - 20 Oct 2010
Global currency war threat - 15 Sep 2010
Interest rate rises scrapped to late 2012 - 18 Aug 2010
Double dip only 30% likely but rates on hold till 2012 - 21 Jul 2010
Cuts will not spark recession - 16 Jun 2010
GDP will be hit by fiscal squeeze - 19 May 2010
UK will avoid Greek crisis - 14 Apr 2010
Economy too weak for sharp spending cuts - 18 Mar 2010
Rate rises pushed back to late 2011 - 17 Feb 2010
PIGS will not sink the euro - 20 Jan 2010
Bank tax will not pay off deficits - 21 Dec 2009
2010: Emerging Markets beat Western Europe - 24 Nov 2009
Jobless figures set to jump - 04 Nov 2009
UK: Sick man of Europe - 07 Sep 2009
Interest rate rises on the way - 27 Jul 2009
US growth: Up in 2010, down in 2011 - 30 Jun 2009
Economic recovery may grind to a halt - 29 Jun 2009
Economic crisis is deepening rapidly - 29 Jun 2009
Economy starting to bottom out - 16 Jun 2009
Economic recovery won't help Labour
Previously on Debates
- 11 Aug 2010
Risk management: Walking the wire - 27 Jul 2010
Brazil Unbound: How investors see Brazil and Brazil sees the world - 07 May 2010
Another election in months - 30 Apr 2010
Party leaders attack banks, bonuses and the City
- 23 Apr 2010
Markets should relax over hung parliament threat - 16 Apr 2010
Leadership debate: Spending cuts and immigration issues ducked - 09 Apr 2010
Election Countdown: Tax and spending divide widens - 01 Apr 2010
Election Countdown: Gilt markets face hung parliament threat - 30 Mar 2010
After Copenhagen: Business and climate change - 26 Mar 2010
Election Countdown: Major public spending cuts after the election - 19 Mar 2010
Election Countdown: Can the City escape tough regulation? - 12 Mar 2010
Election Countdown: Bank bonuses not an election issue - 11 Dec 2009
Managing virtual teams - 04 Dec 2009
Corporate relocations – the challenges of moving operations - 25 Sep 2008
The Credit Crunch - The corporate response
Previously on Health
- 16 Dec 2009
The future of ageing and social care - 22 Sep 2009
Better health in the developing world - 15 Sep 2009
Why American doctors back Health Reform - 23 Apr 2009
Preventive Medicine - nice idea, but not practical today?
Previously on News
- 29 Jan 2010
Davos: Ignoring geo-political risks 'complacent' - 28 Jan 2010
Davos: Danger of renewed economic slowdown - 02 Jul 2009
Iran - arrests will deter foreign investors - 29 Jun 2009
Economic gloom will lead to social unrest
- 29 Jun 2009
Swine Flu: An underestimated threat
Election Countdown: Bank bonuses not an election issue
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In the first of a series of weekly programmes leading up to the UK general election, the Economist Intelligence Unit looks at what will be the key issues raised by the main parties. Neil Prothero explains why bonuses and bank break ups are not on any party's agenda.
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For more macroeconomic analysis plus opinion on equity and commodity trends, watch The Longview.
- 03 Sep 2010
Equities - Cyclically attractive, structurally challenged - 16 Jul 2010
Copper supercycle intact - 08 Jul 2010
Summer equity rally expected - 17 Jun 2010
Time to buy sterling? - 10 Jun 2010
New bear market? - 11 May 2010
Buy equities: Three reasons - 15 Apr 2010
Why own gold? - 08 Apr 2010
Does the election matter to markets?
Hello and welcome to Election Countdown, the first in a series of programmes in the lead-up to the UK General Election. And we're going to be looking at some of the key issues that the political parties are or maybe are not covering in this election campaign. And today it's banking. So Neil, why is it that banks have become a political issue?
I think it's obviously a major issue in the UK given the amount of support that the Government has had to provide to step in and save the banking system. But as a political issue and between the differences between the parties, I think you'll see over the next few months that there aren't very many differences at all.
Effectively the measures that have been taken in terms of policy decisions by the UK Government and by other governments around the world, that has effectively almost trapped the Government and potential next Government into a particular policy line. And so there's very little scope for the parties to have any different policies on this issue.
So what do the parties proposed to do then about the de facto nationalised banks?
Probably they have limited scope at the moment again given the fundamental weakness that they're showing. They still require a massive funding gap and that still is being addressed at the moment by the various lines of Government support etc.
But there a contradiction of policy that the Government's had to impose on the banks at the moment. On the one hand being seen to act tough and to force the banks to provide new loans to the economy but on the other hand effectively realising that in order to restore a healthy banking sector again the banks from the position that they are now, very weak, they need to earn these big profits and as well to reduce their balance sheets in order to reach a more sustainable position.
And so they're quite keen, without necessarily publicising, it for the banks to continue to earn these big profits. And also related to that is the fact that the taxpayer obviously has a stake in the banks now in terms of the shares it holds.
And so the Government wants the banks to return to a more sustainable position in order for the share prices to continue to rise and so in time when the Government or whichever Government comes to actually sell these shares back into the private market that you can say, look we've made a profit on the policy measures that we took to try to save the banks and so everyone's a winner as such.
Do you think that bank bonuses will be a live issue in this campaign?
It will be an issue but in terms of the differences between the parties again there's very little. As I've just said the banks have have to make these profits in order to recover and with big profits come naturally big bonuses.
Now the Government might make a play of its super tax 50 per cent tax rate that it imposed on this fiscal year's bonus payments which has brought in about £1.5b of revenue to the Treasury. But really it hasn't fundamentally changed anything in terms of the structure of bonuses being paid next year and the year after. And so far there's been very little movement from the other parties as well into how they might change this in terms of policy going forward.
So again in terms of there's been very little differences between the three parties, it's unlikely, I think, to be a major policy issue during the campaign.
And are any of the main political parties looking to split the high street and investment arms of the banks or is that now something of a dead duck?
At the moment it does seem a bit of a dead duck given the reform momentum seems to have slowed both in the UK and abroad.
There is a slight difference I think between the parties' approach to this issue. The Government, Alistair Darling and Gordon Brown, have both stated that they're not in favour of this simple split between investment and utility banking.
The Conservatives, slightly siding a bit more with the Bank of England Governor, Mervyn King, who thinks this is absolutely necessary as part of a whole range of potential reform measures going forward and it needs to address this issue of moral hazard that is residing within the banking sector and will continue to be a major weighing down effect going forward in terms of major reforms.
So are we saying then that the City can breathe easily whatever the result of the General Election?
I think probably they're breathing a lot easier now than they probably thought they would be after the crisis struck and they were so reliant at that point on massive support.
I think the issue in terms of for the election, they probably can breathe easily. There won't be too many differences in the policies that the different parties are going to prepare.
But I think over a longer term they realise that there will be some changes in terms of higher capital requirement, higher liquidity requirement, a bit more tightening of oversight. And whether this is actually enough to address again this moral hazard issue in terms of the too big to fail that is the key issue I think going forward which none of the parties at present seem to be addressing.
Thank you Neil. Well I hope that's been informative. Next week we're going to be looking at regulation and how that's being addressed in the General Election. And we'll also be inviting feedback from you, the viewers, in future programmes. Until then, please join us again next week. Thank you and goodbye.
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