Previously on Global Forecast
- 18 Apr 2011
One more ECB rate rise due – but no euro surge - 16 Mar 2011
Japan economy strong enough to bounce back - 16 Feb 2011
UK rates will rise in first half - 27 Jan 2011
Interest rates on hold despite inflation fears
- 15 Dec 2010
Gloom for many in 2011 - 17 Nov 2010
Ireland's fall - no reason to regret cuts - 20 Oct 2010
Global currency war threat - 15 Sep 2010
Interest rate rises scrapped to late 2012 - 18 Aug 2010
Double dip only 30% likely but rates on hold till 2012 - 21 Jul 2010
Cuts will not spark recession - 16 Jun 2010
GDP will be hit by fiscal squeeze - 19 May 2010
UK will avoid Greek crisis - 14 Apr 2010
Economy too weak for sharp spending cuts - 18 Mar 2010
Rate rises pushed back to late 2011 - 17 Feb 2010
PIGS will not sink the euro - 20 Jan 2010
Bank tax will not pay off deficits - 21 Dec 2009
2010: Emerging Markets beat Western Europe - 24 Nov 2009
Jobless figures set to jump - 04 Nov 2009
UK: Sick man of Europe - 07 Sep 2009
Interest rate rises on the way - 27 Jul 2009
US growth: Up in 2010, down in 2011 - 30 Jun 2009
Economic recovery may grind to a halt - 29 Jun 2009
Economic crisis is deepening rapidly - 29 Jun 2009
Economy starting to bottom out - 16 Jun 2009
Economic recovery won't help Labour
Previously on Debates
- 11 Aug 2010
Risk management: Walking the wire - 27 Jul 2010
Brazil Unbound: How investors see Brazil and Brazil sees the world - 07 May 2010
Another election in months - 30 Apr 2010
Party leaders attack banks, bonuses and the City
- 23 Apr 2010
Markets should relax over hung parliament threat - 16 Apr 2010
Leadership debate: Spending cuts and immigration issues ducked - 09 Apr 2010
Election Countdown: Tax and spending divide widens - 01 Apr 2010
Election Countdown: Gilt markets face hung parliament threat - 30 Mar 2010
After Copenhagen: Business and climate change - 26 Mar 2010
Election Countdown: Major public spending cuts after the election - 19 Mar 2010
Election Countdown: Can the City escape tough regulation? - 12 Mar 2010
Election Countdown: Bank bonuses not an election issue - 11 Dec 2009
Managing virtual teams - 04 Dec 2009
Corporate relocations – the challenges of moving operations - 25 Sep 2008
The Credit Crunch - The corporate response
Previously on Health
- 16 Dec 2009
The future of ageing and social care - 22 Sep 2009
Better health in the developing world - 15 Sep 2009
Why American doctors back Health Reform - 23 Apr 2009
Preventive Medicine - nice idea, but not practical today?
Previously on News
- 29 Jan 2010
Davos: Ignoring geo-political risks 'complacent' - 28 Jan 2010
Davos: Danger of renewed economic slowdown - 02 Jul 2009
Iran - arrests will deter foreign investors - 29 Jun 2009
Economic gloom will lead to social unrest
- 29 Jun 2009
Swine Flu: An underestimated threat
Why own gold?
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Chris Watling argues that the case for owning gold is a straight forward case of economics supported by two key points - gold’s history and its supply/demand dynamics.
By viewing the video or accessing the transcript you are agreeing to accept the Cantos terms and conditions.
For more macroeconomic analysis plus opinion on equity and commodity trends, watch The Longview.
- 03 Sep 2010
Equities - Cyclically attractive, structurally challenged - 16 Jul 2010
Copper supercycle intact - 08 Jul 2010
Summer equity rally expected - 17 Jun 2010
Time to buy sterling? - 10 Jun 2010
New bear market? - 11 May 2010
Buy equities: Three reasons - 15 Apr 2010
Why own gold? - 08 Apr 2010
Does the election matter to markets?
Why own gold - one of the most contentious asset classes in the financial market spectrum? To some, gold has an awe of mystic and almost revered status. Yet to other investors it has no earnings power, no yield and therefore no obvious way to value it.
But the case for owning gold is really a simple straight forward case of economics and to understand that case we need to look at two key points. One, gold's history and two, its supply/demand dynamics.
On the historical side, gold has functioned as the world's monetary anchor for most of the last 200 or 300 years. Indeed, all the way from 1800 up until 1971.
By that I mean the money supply of countries was linked, anchored, to the amount of gold that was in circulation. As such, the ability of governments to create money, to print money, was severely restricted and severely limited and as such, there was little or indeed no inflation over that period.
Indeed, from 1800 to 1945 £1 bought the same basket of goods at the beginning as it bought at the end of that time period. The same in America. The same in most countries in Europe. Gold anchored the world's monetary systems. Gold anchored inflation such that there was none over that time period.
Since 1971, since we came off Bretton Woods, the loosely anchored gold monetary system from 1945 to 1971, governments have been able to create money and create as much of it as they need or desire to create.
As such, inflation has taken on different dynamics. Since 1971 UK inflation has increased 11 times. £1 of goods in 1971 now costs £11. In the US it's 5.5 times over that 40-year period. In Japan it is three times. In Italy, 15 times and so on.
As such, the creation of money has led to the creation of inflation. The absence of gold as a monetary anchor has allowed countries to create as much money as they so desire and therefore, create the amount of inflation they so need.
So it's the history that neatly demonstrates the second point, that the case for owning gold is a simple case of supply and demand dynamics and the supply and demand of gold relative to the supply and demand of currencies. Because gold is a precious metal, its supply is limited. It's often hoarded. It doesn't grow rapidly year-on-year. Yet in a fiat currency world, governments can create as much money as they so desire. So whilst they're trying to wring inflation out of the system from the early '80s and the early '90s onwards, monetary policy is tight, the supply of the currency is tight, gold doesn't do well.
Whilst they start creating lots of money in response to financial crises, from 2000 onwards gold starts to perform because the supply of the fiat currency money goes up and the supply of the gold is pretty constant. It's simple economics. It's simple supply and demand and if you expect governments to continue creating money, you want to keep on owning gold.
That was the Longview. You can download this programme from the iTunes store, from Cantos' website or from our website longvieweconomics.com. Do get in touch through the website if you have any questions. We hope you enjoyed watching. Look forward to seeing you next month. Goodbye.
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