Previously on Global Forecast
- 18 Apr 2011
One more ECB rate rise due – but no euro surge - 16 Mar 2011
Japan economy strong enough to bounce back - 16 Feb 2011
UK rates will rise in first half - 27 Jan 2011
Interest rates on hold despite inflation fears
- 15 Dec 2010
Gloom for many in 2011 - 17 Nov 2010
Ireland's fall - no reason to regret cuts - 20 Oct 2010
Global currency war threat - 15 Sep 2010
Interest rate rises scrapped to late 2012 - 18 Aug 2010
Double dip only 30% likely but rates on hold till 2012 - 21 Jul 2010
Cuts will not spark recession - 16 Jun 2010
GDP will be hit by fiscal squeeze - 19 May 2010
UK will avoid Greek crisis - 14 Apr 2010
Economy too weak for sharp spending cuts - 18 Mar 2010
Rate rises pushed back to late 2011 - 17 Feb 2010
PIGS will not sink the euro - 20 Jan 2010
Bank tax will not pay off deficits - 21 Dec 2009
2010: Emerging Markets beat Western Europe - 24 Nov 2009
Jobless figures set to jump - 04 Nov 2009
UK: Sick man of Europe - 07 Sep 2009
Interest rate rises on the way - 27 Jul 2009
US growth: Up in 2010, down in 2011 - 30 Jun 2009
Economic recovery may grind to a halt - 29 Jun 2009
Economic crisis is deepening rapidly - 29 Jun 2009
Economy starting to bottom out - 16 Jun 2009
Economic recovery won't help Labour
Previously on Debates
- 11 Aug 2010
Risk management: Walking the wire - 27 Jul 2010
Brazil Unbound: How investors see Brazil and Brazil sees the world - 07 May 2010
Another election in months - 30 Apr 2010
Party leaders attack banks, bonuses and the City
- 23 Apr 2010
Markets should relax over hung parliament threat - 16 Apr 2010
Leadership debate: Spending cuts and immigration issues ducked - 09 Apr 2010
Election Countdown: Tax and spending divide widens - 01 Apr 2010
Election Countdown: Gilt markets face hung parliament threat - 30 Mar 2010
After Copenhagen: Business and climate change - 26 Mar 2010
Election Countdown: Major public spending cuts after the election - 19 Mar 2010
Election Countdown: Can the City escape tough regulation? - 12 Mar 2010
Election Countdown: Bank bonuses not an election issue - 11 Dec 2009
Managing virtual teams - 04 Dec 2009
Corporate relocations – the challenges of moving operations - 25 Sep 2008
The Credit Crunch - The corporate response
Previously on Health
- 16 Dec 2009
The future of ageing and social care - 22 Sep 2009
Better health in the developing world - 15 Sep 2009
Why American doctors back Health Reform - 23 Apr 2009
Preventive Medicine - nice idea, but not practical today?
Previously on News
- 29 Jan 2010
Davos: Ignoring geo-political risks 'complacent' - 28 Jan 2010
Davos: Danger of renewed economic slowdown - 02 Jul 2009
Iran - arrests will deter foreign investors - 29 Jun 2009
Economic gloom will lead to social unrest
- 29 Jun 2009
Swine Flu: An underestimated threat
Party leaders attack banks, bonuses and the City
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In a tense final debate, the three main party leaders attacked bankers and the City to gain votes while never mentioning the black hole in the public finances, says Robin Bew and Charles Jenkins.
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For more macroeconomic analysis plus opinion on equity and commodity trends, watch The Longview.
- 03 Sep 2010
Equities - Cyclically attractive, structurally challenged - 16 Jul 2010
Copper supercycle intact - 08 Jul 2010
Summer equity rally expected - 17 Jun 2010
Time to buy sterling? - 10 Jun 2010
New bear market? - 11 May 2010
Buy equities: Three reasons - 15 Apr 2010
Why own gold? - 08 Apr 2010
Does the election matter to markets?
Hello and welcome to Election Countdown. We've been watching the third and final debate between the three party leaders; a crucial debate on the future of the UK economy. I'm joined by Robin Bew from the Economist Intelligence Unit and once more by Charles Jenkins, also of course from the Economist Intelligence Unit.
I'm going to start with you Charles. There was an elephant in the room tonight and it was the big hole in the public finances. Nobody really seemed to mention that head on.
Charles Jenkins - No, well indeed, fiscal studies, which two of them did mention, has said that it's between £50bn and £65bn hole in the three of their budget assessments.
The Liberal Democrat's Nick Clegg did suggest a few cuts. Euro to biometric passports. He's got one or two others. But basically, they're still pretty small ones. £15bn out of £65bn or so that has to be cut and even some of that he was suggesting might be spent in other ways like on school child premium.
So this is really the big issue for whoever takes over the government and it could be a poison chalice. Mervyn King said that whoever wins the next election is going to the lose one after and not be in power for another 10 years. So it might be that the losing one will be the winner.
Robin Bew - I just think it is very interesting that for all of the parties a lot of the cuts that they have announced are actually around efficiency savings and we know from experience that those can be extraordinarily difficult to actually find in practice and most of the parties, with the exception of the Liberal Democrats have actually ring fenced big chunks of public spending from the cuts.
So you have to find this £50bn, £60bn from a very small chunk of the public spending bill and that's going to be extraordinarily difficult and in fact, in our view, probably impossible.
There was talk from Brown in particular, he talks about this emergency budget that the Tories are going to come in with in four weeks' time. If this budget does happen, are we going to see a lot of the ring fencing that has been talked about disappear suddenly?
Robin Bew - Well if the Tories come in of course this emergency budget is all about finding this £6bn worth of savings during the course of this year and Gordon Brown has pointed that that could push us back into recession.
I think it is important to recognise that the £6bn of cuts that the Conservatives are talking about putting into effect this year is absolutely minuscule in the context of the public spending bill and the economy overall. So actually, the impact is going to be very, very modest.
But I think an emergency budget would be an opportunity to start rethinking perhaps some of these ring fenced areas and making it clear that perhaps the cuts will have to fall a bit more widely and indeed, areas where the taxes are going to go up.
Everybody loves the poor now, so we have a £10,000 cap below which you don't pay income tax if Mr Clegg. Anybody under £20,000 won't be affected by National Insurance hikes. So happy poor?
Charles Jenkins - Well unfortunately the poor have tended to remain poor. If anything, they are more of them over the last 13 years and of course under the previous government the poor increased, so I don't think the outlook for the poor is as good as all the leaders might suggest.
I fear that even Lib Dem's plan for £10,000 tax limit is not going to be able to be afforded. If they can make the money up somewhere else, that money will be needed to plug the deficit.
At the other end of the social scale, our audience, bonuses. You had Clegg saying no cash bonuses over £2,500, no bonuses at Director level, no bonuses at loss making State held banks. A lot of Tweets about that.
Robin Bew - And presumably no financial sector in the UK either. It's difficult to imagine the international investment banking community viewing London as being quite so attractive under those kind of draconian rules.
I think the interesting thing with Clegg though was saying that he would go ahead with a lot of these policies without international agreement and of course you see the other parties much more interested in whether you get the other major financial centres to step in and perhaps put something in place as a bit more globally co-ordinated. So we saw that on the banking side.
Of course, the other area that we talked about which is impacting on the rich was inheritance tax and the Conservative plans there to increase the inheritance tax threshold. A lot of discussion about that. Actually, relatively small sums of money at stake, but an interesting political counterpoint to perhaps cutting tax child credits, tax credits for children.
Just to the euro as well, just to move on. But on the euro the spectra of Greece was also something in the room. I thought Mr Clegg pulling back from the idea of adopting the euro. Definitely pulling back from a very pro-euro stance that I think he used to have.
Charles Jenkins - Yes, he did. But the euro is off the agenda now. You can perfectly well argue that we're just too weak an economy to go into the euro. Obviously Greece was too weak an economy as well. But the argument that we should stay out of the Euro forever is another issue, but it's one for this election. That's one weak point that he managed to deflect reasonably well. Of course he had a much tougher time on immigration, for example.
Well immigration, let's move on there as you've raised it. Free movement of labour, that's not flavour of the month.
Robin Bew - Absolutely not. It was always going to come up given the gaff that Gordon Brown had the day before, so we knew this was going to get discussed. I thought it was very, very interesting about how Clegg responded to this because of course of all the major parties his policy is perhaps the most open there. He's talking about an amnesty for illegal immigrants who have been in the UK for more than 10 years. You could have imagined in this kind of political environment he would have had a very tough time. No, but he actually seemed to acquit himself pretty well.
I felt that given that this is such a highly charged policy area and his policy is perhaps one that you wouldn't imagine would resonate with many in the audience, which the other two parties didn't manage to land the killer blow perhaps they could have done on him. So he did pretty well in this area.
There is obviously the BNP factor. It has become an issue. Would you say that it's an issue that has become blown out of all proportion; they become the whipping boys of this recession, our previously admired immigrants?
Charles Jenkins - Well at least no one is attacking existing immigrants as was the case back in the '60s/early '70s, so it is just a question of what new immigrants we should have.
Of course, the point was made that David Cameron is having a cap that only applies to actually quite a small proportion who come from outside the European Union. He said there won't be transition periods for new members, but there is only going to be one new member, Croatia, pretty small country in the new future. So that's not all that relevant really. Robin Bew - It's also relevant to point out that a lot of the immigrants come here for economic reasons and given the shape of the UK economy now and over the next few years, it's likely to be far few are going to want to come anyway.
Everybody now as well loves the manufacturing industry. We're going to re-roll the last 25 years and rebuild the manufacturer. The key to that seems to be encouraging the banks to lend presumably to these manufacturing interests. What did you make of that debate?
Robin Bew - Well I think it was interesting because he was clearly playing to the audience, playing to popular perceptions. I think it's pretty clear that an economy with relatively high labour costs like the UK is going to struggle to compete in many areas of manufacturing, although by no means all. At the high value added end, of course, we can still be competitive. Those issues generally glossed over and instead of a discussion about how manufacturing has been stymied by what is viewed as being poor labour policy, bad bank lending practices and some pressure from all the major parties to get the banks to lend more, that's not the answer. It's not clear at all the manufacturing sector is being significantly starved of credit and that is the reason why we have a lot of problems in our manufacturing industry here. They're much more deep-seated than that.
But nonetheless, as you say, everyone loves manufacturing. It's been one of the themes you've seen come up in other debates as well. Perhaps a counterpoint to what we see happening in the financial sector, but I didn't hear any policies tonight that are really going to change that story.
You thought that Clegg fumbled the ball on VAT on house builders.
Robin Bew - Yes. There was a question from the audience about someone who was struggling to buy their own home and one of the ways that that debate leant was the lack of housing stock in the UK and the need to see more houses being built. Also an issue about seeing some of these closed and shuttered off houses being brought back into circulation. But it was an issue about house building and of course Clegg's policy is to align the rate of VAT on new build and home improvement and of course that means VAT you put on new build and I felt he looked a bit flustered there when you saw the other two parties turn on him and point out that his policy would mean that the house prices for new build would go up. That was the one time I felt he looked a bit vulnerable, but they didn't really push the advantage.
Charles Jenkins - Yes, I mean it's actually a perfectly sensible policy. What's the point of building a whole lot of new buildings when you can repair old buildings and provide incentives to new build new buildings? But yes, he didn't perhaps answer it as strongly as he did the one on immigration.
I thought the tone of the debate on unemployment was again uniform and certainly unsympathetic. Definitely a characterisation of an awful lot of people are shirking, essentially.
Charles Jenkins - Yes, well everyone wanted to make sure that they were not going to actually encourage people not to work and really, there isn't a great deal new here because the Labour government has tried to do everything it can to put pressure on people who are not working. Obviously there are always going to be people who get round that. There always has been and there always will be. This is just one of the many areas where actually they all agreed, but wanted to try and make out that they disagreed.
How do you rate then, in conclusion, the relatively performances? We've had three debates now. Tonight, how would you rate the three leaders?
Charles Jenkins - Well I think they were pretty even this time actually. I mean, Gordon Brown was starting off on the back foot. He didn't really completely get off the back foot but I think he defended his ground pretty well in the situation he finds himself in both for the [ ] but more generally the position of the Labour party.
I think that Clegg did slightly better in the first debate. I thought slightly better. The opinion polls showed much better and Cameron did slightly better in the second debate. I thought that they were pretty even. They had one or two direct confrontations which they hadn't had to the same extent before, but neither of them scored a winning blow.
So I think all three come out of these debates fairly well and I think the debates have been proven to be useful.
There was an interesting commentary by John Lloyd who said that the debates show completely the wrong things and hide the policies that really matter and he cited the debate between Nixon and Kennedy where apparently Nixon had a painful knee and this gave him a rather bad impression. He did much better on the radio according to opinion polls than he was on the television because people didn't see him. So there could be unfair aspects to it, but I think on the whole, that the debates have been successful. Whether there should have been as many as three of them, I'm not sure.
Robin Bew - I actually think they've been pretty good. In terms of the depth of the policy debate, much higher than I had expected before all this started. If you look at the quality of debates you see in other countries, often it can be very, very political and not much policy discussed. No question that we didn't get to the root of our £50bn hole, but I don't think anyone expected that. But broadly, the quality of the answers have been pretty high.
I felt this one was relatively even. Perhaps Cameron and Clegg doing slightly better than Brown. But also, I think people did seem a bit more desperate. As Charles said, you saw a few blows being landed on each other and we haven't really seen that before and then right at the end at the closing statements Brown saying something really quite extraordinary, this idea that if nothing changed he would be out of office because Cameron and Clegg will be running the country in a week's time. Quite an astonishing admission and a real sense I think of the desperation that Labour are now feeling if the polls don't move.
Well I think first of all thank you Robin and thank you Charles. I think from what we've been seeing online, on Twitter, the Tweets seem to indicate that most of you out there thought it was an incredibly tight debate but nobody seemed to deliver a killer punch. So it really is up to the voters on polling day to make the final decision. Essentially, it's over to you, so thank you and goodbye.
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