Robert, a double dip scenario. Are we going to see any of the developed economies slip into recession?

So there are quite a few indicators suggesting that the world is in for a period of slow growth.

I would argue that we shouldn't get over exercised about this. If you bear in mind that we've had incredible stimulus in recent months, the inventory cycle is now turning, the stimulus is now coming to an end, of course the really strong growth that you saw in the first half of this year, of course that's going to come off and of course you're going to get slower growth.

That said I don't want to sort of underplay the seriousness of what's going on either.

We look at the United States, for example, where a lot of the data again are pretty mixed now. I suppose the most worrying bit of that mixed data is the employment market. The private sector is really not creating jobs as it should be at this stage in the cycle. The government, particularly with the census now reaching its end, that's going to be shedding workers as well. Of course, if you have people leaving the workforce, discouraged workers going up, long-term unemployment going up, all this is bad for consumer sentiment. You see this already in retail sales which are falling in the housing market, which looks pretty sickly as well.

So there are I suppose some signs to be worried, but our core forecast has for a long time been that growth globally will slow in the second half of this year. So this slowdown is something that we are expecting.

Over the short-term, clearly, there is going to be some negative impact. But if things go well, this is going to create I suppose structural reforms. A bit more productive allocation of spending will boost growth over the long-term.

However, there is a couple of danger points here, one of which is the stress tests that are going to be announced for the European banks very shortly.

Another one is the European stabilisation mechanisms, the bailout package for the eurozone.

Now if neither of these really gains traction in terms of convincing the markets that they're able to backstop everything, then you could get another round of volatility which would of course be bad for consumer sentiment again, bad for banks, particularly if counterparty risk remains elevated and this would then feed back in a negative feedback loop into the broader economies which, as we've just talked about, are now facing austerity. So there are some issues there to be worried about.

We've assumed that really despite this change, there isn't really going to be much of a change in the gradualist approach that the Chinese authorities have to the renminbi. So we're expecting a nominal appreciation of about 3 per cent a year over the next five years, which takes the renminbi to about an average of 6 to the $1 by 2014, so very incrementalist.

One of the reasons why they're going to take this very gradual approach of course is they're looking at what happened to Japan in the middle of the 1990s when the yen lurched by against the dollar for all sorts of reasons and that was seen as one of the triggers for Japan's deflation.

So they're going to be very, very gradualist about it. They'll do what's best for China no matter how loudly the trading partners shout.

Unfortunately for Japan, however, China is slowing. Because of this slowdown, Japan will also slow. Japan, like everywhere else is seeing an ebbing of the impact from the fiscal stimulus.

This coupled with the entrenched deflation which of course hits private consumption will see Japan really slowing quite substantially in the second half of this year and into next year.

So this year, overall, Japan is going to grow by about 3 per cent - the best performance since 1991, so pretty good overall. But next year we're expecting much more of a kind of traditional Japanese performance of just over 1 per cent or so.