13 Nov 2009
Shell vs. BP



Two stocks to watch

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Two stocks to watch

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  • Steven Mayne, Director

    Steven Mayne, Director

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Steven Mayne at Equitrade casts a trading eye over two equities - medical devices group Smith & Nephew and miner Antofagasta.

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Hello there. Welcome to CantosCharts. I'm Steven Mayne from Equitrade. Today we're going to look at two equities.

To start with we're going to look at Smith & Nephew. Here we simply have a weekly graph. Really what's important here is we notice that we're coming up to an area which is seemingly strong resistance. Obviously, when we're looking at charting we're trying to find the trades with the best risk reward which seems to be what we're getting here on Smith & Nephew. So for those who are looking to short the stock, we really do have a nice level here just to place your stop above which from this price is probably about 12p or 13p.

What we can see as well on the momentum indicators is we have got possible negative divergence happening on the RSI. We have a sell signal on the MACD and a downturn on the stochastic here, so it's giving an indication that it's quite likely the next move for this stock could be lower.

But for those of you who are also being quite bullish on the market, a break above this level could actually imply impulse moves upwards as well, so it's very important really to find these types of charts because you've got quite a clear signal on the downside and then you've only got 10p or 12p here. If it breaks above that, then you might also have an impulse move higher. So really a good stock to watch. Something to put on your watch list in the office.

Here we are. Just a quick recap here. Possible resistance forming at 700p (£7). We have negative divergence on the RSI, a sell signal on the MACD, the downturn on the stochastic.

So really for those who are looking to short the stock, see if you can go short as close to £7 as possible with the stop just above. Those looking at buying the stock, you might actually wait for that level to be broken and then hopefully we should get an impulse move higher as well.

So really, a stock here for the bulls and the bears.

Moving forward, a quick look at Antofagasta, one of the heavily traded miners in the FTSE 100.

It seems like we might be forming a very relevant top here on the weekly timeframe on Antofagasta. We can see that the price action has actually formed a higher high whilst momentum indicators, most notably the MACD and the RSI, has actually formed a lower high. So we have negative divergence on the momentum indicators from the price action.

We also note that over the past couple of weeks we've actually started to change trend on this stock. Just right towards the far left hand side of the graph to me, or maybe the right hand side to your screen, we can start seeing high to low, to lower high, to now what seems to be a lower low, so that is the start of a downtrend.

What we might actually experience here is a much greater sell off. So for those of you who are looking at short the stock, really have two key levels to place stops for those who are looking to actually start day trading this stock. Last time we came down to the 200 simple moving average we did actually start getting some momentum upwards and with the stochastic tending towards oversold, this situation might actually happen again. So what we might see is generally a sell off in this stock but with some good opportunities to buy on small bounces along the way.

A quick recap here. Formation of a lower low and a lower high now seems Antofagasta has actually started forming a downtrend. We should be using these levels really to determine our stops and limits if we are day trading the stock.

The recent high was formed on negative divergence on the RSI and the MACD. This is really giving us some conviction in shorting the stock over the longer term. It does seem that when this happens, we do have far more relevant tops in the market and therefore, we can get prolonged sell offs in individual equities.

But with the stochastic now tending to such oversold levels, there are the opportunities for day traders to buy into this stock especially around that 200 simple moving average mark did seem to be support last time it came down to those levels.

Thank you very much for watching CantosCharts. I've been Steven Mayne from Equitrade.

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