Retail 2012

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With the Christmas trading season out of the way, it’s time to look at what 2012 holds for both retailers and consumers. Tim Danaher, Director at Brunswick, talks to five UK retail experts on why online growth and the future of the high street are going to dominate this year’s agenda.

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Introduction

Tim Danaher, Director, Brunswick.

My name is Tim Danaher, I am a Director at Brunswick. With the Christmas trading update season behind us, attention now turns to the prospect for 2012. In this short video, we talk to some of the leading experts on retail in the UK about what they think the year ahead holds in store. We discussed issues such as the impact the internet is having on retailing, what the prospects are for the recovery of consumer confidence and whether we are likely to see a recovery in the health of the high street. Here's what they had to say.

Christmas trading

Claer Barrett, Retail Correspondent, The Financial Times.

Christmas 2011 has been very mixed. Some people had a Christmas cracker; other people had a Christmas turkey sadly.

Ian King, Business and City Editor, The Times

It was probably not as bad as it could have been. You saw a rise in retail sales volumes. But really, this was only achieved by fairly aggressive cost cutting. And I think without that, things would have been a lot, lot worse.

Stephen Robertson, Director General, British Retail Consortium

We saw October and November were pretty poor and that brought out extra discounts and more money invested in promotions and advertising. Frankly that will have hurt the bottom line and you can already see, particularly non-food retailers, we've seen a clutch of them go into administration or announce store closures.

Simon Laffin, Independent Retail Adviser

What I think the retailers did this year was know in advance it was going to be a tough Christmas. So I think they handled their stocks, they kept their stocks low. So there wasn't as much discounting and panic as you thought there might be.

Tony Shiret, Retail Analyst

The single biggest piece of news in retail over the Christmas reporting season was Tesco saying that it was going to stop opening hypermarkets and that it felt that a more appropriate growth channel for its non-food business was online.

Online growth

Claer Barrett.

The retailers who I speak to, the internet is the first thing that they want to talk about. It's what they want to know about what their competitors are doing and it seems to be the big battleground for 2012.

Stephen Robertson.

A number of big retailers have said we are going to move more of our business model online. And that's not just transactionally, but also getting more involved with other digital ways to communicate with their customers, and that's already paying dividends for some businesses.

Ian King.

Online retailing is forcing people to change their game. You'll see, for example, with Argos, them becoming much more a click-and-collect type proposition.

Simon Laffin.

The UK has had a high sales per square metre, and that's been one of the strengths of the UK retailing. And the internet is reducing that. So it's putting pressure on almost every retailer's sales per square metre. And when your sales intensity, your sales per square metre fall your ability to afford expensive property reduces. So you know the obvious solution is to start closing your underperforming stores.

The High Street

Ian King

I thought the Portas review was a complete waste of time. I thought it was a dark publicity stunt by a government that seems addicted to getting TV personalities in to try and capture the public's imagination.

Stephen Robertson.

Some high streets, frankly, I think are beyond a tipping point and we've got to accept they're not going to come back. It is going to be a tough year on the high street.

Claer Barrett.

What I think is interesting to watch is if any legislation comes out of the Portas review. There's a good chance that planning will be looked at again. There's a good chance that Councils will begin to see the benefits of converting spent High Streets into residential and I think really that's one of the only ways that you can avoid these areas becoming permanently blighted.

Looking ahead

Stephen Robertson.

We're all going to get very excited about the Olympics, we've got European football, the Queen's Jubilee, but overall I think it's going to be a difficult year. And what finance directors are telling me is that they're cutting their cloth accordingly and they're making sure their costs are in line with expectations that sales are not going to grow significantly.

Tony Shiret.

Some of the more financially geared companies, so companies with big borrowings have been struggling through the year, so some of those have already had big problems. I think some of those trends are going to continue through.

Simon Laffin.

I'm not sure we are going to see a lot of corporate M&A, because it's very, very difficult to do an M&A acquisition if you're a corporate and the trading isn't very good and the profit is difficult, and the debt markets are tough.

Ian King.

2012 will be a hard year for retailers. But I think there are one or two silver linings that you can point to. For example, inflation is falling very, very rapidly, even before the year-on-year comparison with last year and the imposition of higher rate of VAT falls out of the comparator.

Claer Barrett.

2012 is going to be tough, but the great thing about the retail sector is that it's constantly reinventing itself.

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